2015 Mock, Beta Test
Let me be the first out the door with a quickie mock draft. As always, I expect to be 100% wrong (although last year I got one pick right and at least one other where I was way more right than the Steelers). I post this anticipating humiliation and without the benefit of a lot of inside info, without any idea of what might happen in free agency, or, let’s be honest, without much in the way of football knowledge.
It’s easy to say the Steelers need to pick a cornerback high in the draft, but I and most fans have been saying that for three years. It’s even more true now, what with Cortez Allen’s failure to launch and the ineffective season offered by aging Ike Taylor. Yet, the Steelers are in big trouble at outside linebacker with Worilds not exactly posting Hall of Fame results and perhaps pricing himself beyond his proven value in free agency, and with Jarvis Jones yet to prove he can hold down the position and remain healthy. They also need to resign Arthur Moats who can provide solid depth and rotation. If the Steelers fail to sign Worilds, OLB will certainly be an even higher priority and will almost certainly result in some kind of free agent signing.
Although tight end is not an emergency need, the Steelers do need to begin developing a replacement for Heath Miller. The emergence of a legitimate backfield receiving threat in Le’Veon Bell along with the development of a great receiving corps has reduced the pressure to have a first round caliber receiving tight end. Still, they should look for a strong prospect with solid hands and good blocking potential in the mid rounds.
Mike Mitchell hopefully will improve at free safety, but even so there is a need for depth at the position and an eventual replacement. An additional option at running back would be welcome, to supplement Josh Harris and Dri Archer in the backup role. Some competition would be welcome at punter, although the Steelers rarely spend a draft pick on a kicking position. Offensive line depth is always welcome as well.
I am going with the following positional choices (w/ updates 3/22):
- CB
- OLB
- CB
- TE
- OT
- RB
- 6c – OLB
- P
The Steelers should also get a late round compensatory pick, but for the purposes of Mock Beta I will ignore that.
Here are my specific player choices (w/ updates 3/22):
CB Trae Waynes, Michigan State – Good size and athletic ability.
– Update 3/22: CB Kevin Johnson, Wake Forest; Steelers seem to have shown a high interest- OLB Nate Orchard, Utah – pass rush specialist; Nate will convert from DE. If Nate is already gone, I’ll say Trey Flowers of Arkansas.
CB Marcus Peters, Washington – off field issues make him available lower than his first round potential.
– Update 3/22 CB/S Eric Rowe, Utah; Peters’ off-field issues now seen as manageable so likely to go mid to late round 1; Steelers would not take that chance on a first rounder, but many other teams will. Steelers might also look for their second CB later in the draft based on depth, maybe someone like Justin Cox, but Rowe would be a great choice here if still on the board.- TE Jesse James, Penn State – good size and hands, and a great name.
- FS Durrell Eskridge, Syracuse – excellent size and frame.
– Update 3/22: OT Donovan Smith, Penn State - RB David Cobb, Minnesota – thick bodied bruiser can soften the defense.
- 6 comp pick (Update 3/22) – OLB/DE Ryan Russell, Purdue. Good developmental prospect.
- P Spencer Roth, Baylor – strong leg, ability to pin a punt, and big enough to make a tackle when needed.
Yes, I know, I know, so and so will “never fall that far” and often that will be the case. Equally often, we are surprised at how far so many prospects fall. The idea here is to look for value at or above the selection point.
Should the Steelers fail to resign Worilds, OLB suddenly becomes a first round priority.
So let’s hear some other opinions….
Copa, you have three guys with 1st round grades in the 1st 3 rounds. If this actually happened, it would instantly gain comparison to the 1974 Steelers draft. I think Peters still goes in the 1st, even with character issues, because of the dearth of quality CB prospects. And heck, if Bradley Roby went in the 1st last year, Peters will go in the 1st this year. He’s a better talent.
The last time the Steelers took at guy they had rated as a 1st rounder with character issues, it burned them. His name is Mike Adams. I don’t know that they will shy away from players like that in the short term, but I expect it.
Whether or not they have first round grades depends entirely on your source, as it’s a subjective thing. For example, CBS ranks Nate Orchard as rounds 1-2. Meanwhile WalterFootball ranks Orchard at rounds 3-4. It’s certainly possible that he will be there for the Steelers 2nd round pick.
As for Marcus Peters, he is supposedly a first round talent but not first round ranked because of some off-field issues. I agree that you normally want to avoid guys with maturity issues, but if you have a shot at taking a first round talent at round 3-4, and your scouts feel he can be matured, then you take that shot.
CBS ranks him at 1-2 and says “Peters is a clear first-round talent who must answer significant character concerns leading up to the draft after being dismissed from the Washington football team on Nov. 6.” WalterFootball has him at 3-4, and says “Washington kicked Peters off the team after multiple run-ins with the new coaching staff. The repeated arguments led to not only him losing his opportunity to finish out the season, but sources say it is unlikely Peters will be a first-round pick in the 2015 NFL Draft. Sources said that a lot can change in the months to come, and if Peters cleans up his act while interviewing well with teams, perhaps a team picking late in the first round could roll the dice on him. However, it is more likely that the second day of the 2015 NFL Draft is the highest he should hope to go.”
There is a difference in off-field issues involving things like assault or drugs. In Peters case, from what I can see, it looks like he clashed with the coaches and threw a temper tantrum. I would talk to the kid to see what he’s like and if he’s ready to grow up, and if I feel I can get a first round talent at round 3, then those are dice I roll. If he actually goes in the first round, then the point is moot, but for the purpose of the mock I make the assumption that he slips.
There are always slips and lots of them, because more guys are ranked in a round than can actually be taken (not to mention you always have a Cleveland or Oakland making inexplicable reaches). CBS has 40 guys as potential first round picks. There are only 32 slots. They also have 57 guys as potential second round picks. Subtracting 7 overlapping guys who would go in the first round, this leaves 50 potential 2nd rounders for 32 spots. This sort of thing continues to snowball leaving more and more “surprise” options as you go along.
They haven’t updated their reports since the Senior Bowl practices began on Orchard. He destroyed everyone in MObile and did nothing but enhance his reputation as a pass rusher. They already knew he could defend the run.
As to Peters, he will be taken in the 1st because the pass heavy NFL need CBs and he has the talent to be a very good corner. I don’t know if the Steelers will take him at all, I suspect they won’t, but I also don’t expect him to be available for the 54th pick.
Well, we’ll see. WalterFootball last updated its mock yesterday (although not individual scouting reports) and doesn’t show either of them going in the first four rounds, so at least I’m no more stupid than someone who obsesses over this stuff to the point of devoting his life to maintaining one of the most extensive web sites on the subject.
In any case, there are other choices at these positions that will be available if my guesses are not there. I just hope to see the Steelers experts select the best available CBs and OLB in those first three rounds.
I don’t think anyone will mistake you for being stupid. It’s all a guessing game at this point, but I really do think all three are worthy of 1st round picks.
I agree withe the sentiment that hopes the Steelers take the best OLBs and CBs available. I would, however, like them to at least take a look at a guy like Josh Shaw. The kid has all the ability in the World and made a really dumb mistake.
“I don’t think anyone will mistake you for being stupid.”
That’s ’cause you don’t know me very well. Trust me on this one.
Last year Mr. Walsh and I investigated a pattern by the Steelers of drafting players they had either had in for a visit or spent a lot of time with outside the facility and so we starting tracking it. I later put together a chart along with a projected round based entirely upon “expert” subjective grades. I’ll be doing the same this year. The draft is a fluid exercise. Mocking it is a fun way to burn time in the offseason, but the payoff lacks appeal as far as I’m concerned.
The only player who did not have an official visit before the draft was Dri Archer.
https://steel-balls.org/2014/05/09/list-of-steelers-visits-sd-list-and-their-projected-rounds/
i dont speculate beyond the first round as far as players:
1) Alvin “bud” Dupree- OLB Kentucky
2)CB
3)CB
4)TE
5)S
6)OL
7)RB
Depot is posing the question of whether or not the Steelers can risk taking Peters with the 22nd pick. http://www.steelersdepot.com/2015/01/can-pittsburgh-afford-gambling-gifted-cb-marcus-peters-22/
It boils down to whether or not he passes the FO sniff test regarding behavioral issues. If there are any red flags at all, they will not pick in in round 1. Of course that would not stop many other teams from doing so, such as the Bungles or Ravens. The Rats need CB help as much as the Steelers and they don’t have much of a filter for character issues.
Found out more about Peters character questions. Apparently he had a disagreement with his position coach and grabbed him by the throat during the confrontation. One strike; off the team. If that’s true, he won’t even be on the Steelers’ board. So much for my Bradley Roby comparison. So wrong. That would set a new standard for “has issues with authority figures”.
I like Trae Waynes for the fisrt pick, if he’s there. I could also see Vic Beasley, if he’s there…then, there’s also the real possibility of then trading the 22nd pick for a later 1st rounder and maybe an additional 3rd or 4th…I won’t try to pick 2nd or 3rd or wherever, just because I don’t know near enough about the prospects, and I would simply be regurtitating an aggregate of what I read–so I’ll just sit back and read what everyone else writes and have fun with it that way. But, I will go out on a limb and select a 7th rd compensatory pick with QB Taylor Heinicke, for no other reason than me being a homer–and the fact that he played his college ball in Hampton Roads and we all know MT likes to throw a flare out for the home town crew every once in a while
Looking at the prospects as they sit right now, it would seem that there is more 2nd round talent than people initially though and less 1st round talent. Most “internet scouts” are projecting 22 – 24 first round grades and about 40 second round grades. In order to really have an idea of what the Steelers might do to better position themselves, we need to know what the roster looks like in April.
I realize that’s just waxing on poetic, but I really have no clue what I would like to see them do in the draft as of yet other than to say that they have to draft CBs and OLBs that will pan out.
Of course many things can happen between now and draft day. This is purely an exercise for idle time fun, not to be taken seriously. To me, it’s fantastically unlikely to get even one pick right at this stage of the game because there are so many variables. Even on draft day it is pretty unlikely to get more than one or two picks right at the most, because the whole process has so many moving parts, including illogical and moronic GMs of certain teams that we need not bother to name.
Last year I got one pick right out of my January guesses, which amazed me, and it was the one pick (Big Dan McCullers) where I bothered to explain my reasoning. That will probably never happen again.
I think the chances of my getting one right two years in a row is very close to zero, but that’s what makes these early guesses fun. For a more serious analysis, I look forward to your detailed investigations to come, and the sage insight of Malsor and others who understand the nuances of the game far better than I do.
I have absolutely no expectatioon of getting a pick right–I’m pretty sure over the past several years, I’ve never gotten a 1st rd pick right, let alone any others. All I hope is that the experimental/charity picks are over (Archer/Adams/Ta’amu–that was more bad luck than anything)…I recall MT saying that Archer was more of a luxury than anything else–but were they really in a position to sepnd a 3rd rd pick on a luxury? But, I’ll also say that aftre reading Kiper’s latest mock (which I’m sure each you know he has the Steelers taking J Collins), it’d be a tough decision if both Collins and Dupree were available at 22. I agree that it all comes down to the FA period and how the roster looks, but all that aside, it would be very hard to pass on Dupree if he were there at 22.