Steel Balls

In an unexpected turn of events sure to displease my fellow Ballers, copanut reclaims the Steel Balls trophy following a three year hiatus.

I must admit to being surprised, considering I had the worst prediction regarding our beloved Steelers. In fact, my guess was so bad, I did not bother even looking at my predictions once the Steelers’ wobbly wheels came off the Matt Canada bus by mid-season. But after all these years, haven’t we learned from the Steelers that we should never give up until the fat punter kicks?

I had naively guessed 13 wins, meaning every single one of you was closer to the mark than I was, including both EstimatedProphet and tennbob who correctly guessed the final result of 10 wins. Unfortunately for me, it doesn’t count that the Steelers would have ended with 13 wins had Mitch Trubisky not gifted wins to three awful teams in a row. But fortunately for me, our contest is not about Steelers wins alone!

With the entire division taken into consideration, as is the rule of this contest, copanut and tennbob tied with a total score of 9. As you know, the score is the net difference between the guessed results and the actual results, so lowest score wins. Four of you came in at 10, making it a close contest all around.

Being tied at 9, the contest fell through to tie breakers.

The first tie breaker is playoff wins. We do not yet know the answer for playoff wins, but it doesn’t matter since both copanut and tennbob guessed 1 win.

The second tie breaker is the total number of touchdowns scored by Diontae Johnson, who entered the season with a two year non-scoring streak. He finished the season with 5 TDs. Copanut guessed 6 and tennbob guessed 4, so we were both off by 1, and therefore remained at a tie.

The third tie breaker is the total number of sacks by Nick Herbig, and here the tie was finally broken. Herbig notched 3 sacks. Copanut guessed 3 while tennbob guessed 5, so copanut finishes with a total score of 11, beating tennbob’s 13.

Now, it is my general habit to screw up these tallies in one or two places, so I encourage you to double check my work. If so, you may be able to pry the trophy out of my hands. The overall contest was so close that pretty much anyone could be the winner if I made a mistake.

Summary of predictions:

Scoring:

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Make your 2023 season predictions below. Same rules as previous seasons. Entries must be submitted by midnight before the season opening game.

Please include (1) W/L predictions for each Steelers game, (2) season records for each team in the division, and (3) tie breakers. If you fail to submit the tie breakers, you lose the tie.

Here is your prediction template. Good luck.

01 – SF
02 – CLE (Mon)
03 – @LV
04 – @HOU
05 – BAL
06 – BYE
07 – @LAR (SNF)
08 – JAX
09 – TEN (Thu)
10 – GB
11 – @CLE
12 – @CIN
13 – ARI
14 – NE (Thu)
15 – @IND
16 – CIN (Sat)
17 – @SEA
18 – @BAL

Standings (wins):
Steelers
Bengals
Browns
Ravens

Tie Breakers:

• # Steelers playoff wins
• # TD catches by Dionte Johnson
• # Sacks by Nick Herbig

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The 2022 Baller Prognosticator of the Year goes to: Eleven! It was a very tight competition, as you will see below.

The first table shows our predictions vs the actual results.

The second table shows the net scores for each prediction.

As you can see, there was a two-way tie for first place between Eleven and tennbob with a score of 2. Tuskegee_Brown and EstimatedProphet were close behind with scores of 2.5 and 3. Eleven nailed the Steelers and Bengals, while tennbob hit on the Steelers and Browns. Sadly for tennbob, this is like have a non-losing season but failing to win the playoffs, because tennbob failed to provide a bonus prediction for the QB who would start the season (Trubisky). Since the others provided the correct answer for that bonus question, their scores are reduced by one point, giving the final results:

• Eleven: 1
• Tuskegee_Brown: 1.5
• tennbob: 2
• EstimatedProphet: 2

Your moderator was humiliated by coming in last place.

Congratulations to Eleven, and better luck to all of us including the Steelers, for 2023.

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Make your 2022 season predictions below. Same rules as previous seasons. Entries must be submitted by midnight before the season opening game.

Please include (1) W/L predictions for each Steelers game, (2) season records for each team in the division, and (3) number of playoff wins. Any other predictions will be taken into consideration as tie breakers. Bonus points if you correctly answer the two additional questions below.

Here is your prediction template. Good luck.

01 – @Bengals
02 – Patriots
03 – @Browns (Thu)
04 – Jets
05 – @Bills
06 – Buccaneers
07 – @Dolphins (SNF)
08 – @Eagles
09 – Bye
10 – Saints
11 – Bengals
12 – @Colts (Mon)
13 – @Falcons
14 – Ravens
15 – @Panthers
16 – Raiders (Sat)
17 – @Ravens
18 – Browns

Standings
Steelers –
Bengals –
Browns –
Ravens –

# Steelers playoff wins –

Opening Day Starting QB –
First Game Pickett Starts –

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You bet your sweet bippy! We are pleased to announce the 2021 Baller Prognosticator of the Year. Although this strange and stressful season is not yet over, we know that playoff results cannot change the outcome of our competition, so we can announce the winner now.

First, here is the chart of “wins”, actual versus predictions. A half-win is awarded for the tie:

And here is the “delta” chart which shows the difference between actual and predictions. Lower values are better:

Both MWalsh26 and EstimatedProphet came closest to guessing the Steelers result, missing only by a half game. (If we were not counting the tie as a half win, EstimatedProphet would be the winner on this question). So, participation trophies go to Walsh and EP, but they went on to whiff badly regarding the rest of the division.

And let’s face it – we all whiffed on the Bengals. We knew that they had the best young QB in the division but we just didn’t trust the Bengals organization to be able to get the job done, and we were wrong. Sure, the Bengals had the easiest schedule, but they also beat the tar out of the Steelers twice, and won a number of other impressive games, so we give credit where it is due.

In the end, copanut and Tuskegee_Brown tied with the best overall result of 11.5. Both of them predicted the Steelers will win a single playoff game before being bounced from the tourney,  so copanut and TB would remain tied regardless of playoff outcome.

We need to go to tie breakers to determine the winner. Because TB predicted the Steelers would get into the playoffs as a wild card team, whereas copanut predicted they would be division winners, the tie breaker goes to TB. As icing on the cake, TB had a closer guess in Steeler wins.

All hail the new champion, Tuskegee_Brown!

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Yes, it was a strange season with very high highs and very low lows, but one good thing came out of it: the Ballers’ Trophy comes back home to where it belongs. 
Here were the guesses on number of wins:

Although we were all rooting for JAMESH to get the win (and it looked promising for 11 weeks) it just was not to be.

Here is the final tally of results, which is the difference between estimated and actual results. Low score wins:

As you can see, copanut tied ESPN for the best prognostication. Although ESPN is the only entry that was exactly correct on the Steelers, copanut was closer with the Stains. Other differences cancelled out. MWalsh26 and tennbob were close behind with a score of 9. The dirty hippie might have won but failed to give guesses across the division and thus lost out. I gave him the courtesy of a guess for the Rats at 12 wins since he predicted they would finish ahead of the Steelers, but even that was not enough.

Better luck to all of us, in every way, for 2021.

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Well I think we’ve seen enough of preseason to stake out our positions regarding season results, so let’s get to it.

It’s that time of year where Steel Ballers put their reputations on the line to make their season predictions. Let me remind you of the rules of engagement:

Rules:

1. Lowest score wins.
2. Points are based on accuracy. An exact prediction yields zero points.
3. Categories include:
   • Final regular season record for each AFCN team.
   • Divisional positioning of AFCN teams.
   • Number of Steelers playoff wins (first round bye counts as a win)
4. Tie breaker: first, accuracy of game-by-game predictions, then earliest submission

If you are too lazy to provide predictions in any of the above categories, you will get maximum points for that category.

Predictions will be accepted until Midnight ET September 7. You may change your predictions up until that time without penalty.

Good luck!

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After bit of a delay due to traveling, I’m pleased to present the trophy to the winner of our 2019 Draft Predictions contest: Earl. Earl kicked major butt by correctly guessing 2 names and 4 position / round combinations, giving him 6 points – twice the points of our second place finisher MWalsh26 who nailed 2 named selection and 2 position / round combos. EstimatedProphet was the only other participant to hit on a named selection. Here are the final results:

In honor of Earl’s achievement I’m presenting a special version of the Steely McBeam trophy. Congratulations Earl!

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I don’t know about yinz, but I’ve been licking my wounds for long enough and it’s time to get back to football. As you all know, the new Ballers season begins officially with our annual draft predictions contest, and it’s time to see if our defending champion Walsh can be unseated. With the draft coming up in less than two weeks we can drag our feet no longer.

I normally kick things off with my own set of predictions, but honestly I’m not ready yet (or to be more accurate, I’m even less ready than usual). So, I’ll let you guys jump in the fray first this time around. Remember, earlier date of predictions is a tie breaker, so get your predictions in as soon as you can.

As a reminder, the rules are posted below.

1. You will be granted one point for each pick correctly identified by name, regardless of when they are picked. For example, if you predict that John Doe will be picked in round 1 but he is actually picked in round 2, you will still get one point.
2. You will be granted one point for each correct position/round combination. The specific player need not be correct, and in fact need not be specified at all. For example, if you said the first round pick would be safety John Doe (or just safety), and the actual first round pick is safety D’Long Johnson, this would be one point. Note that if the first round pick is John Doe you will have two points, one for the correct name, and one for the correct position/round combo. If you select a multi-position player (such as S/OLB) where you did not pick the correct name you will gain a half point if the actual selection matches one of the positions of your guessed player but only if you identify both positions in the pick. For example if your pick is a DE that you project as playing OLB, then you should identify the position as OLB. If the Steelers then select a different player who is a true OLB you will get full credit. If you identify DE/OLB you will get half credit in that instance.
3. You may specify up to three UDFA picks.
4. You will gain a bonus point if you correctly predict a trade up or down.
5. In the event of a tie, the participant who entered his submission earlier will be the winner based on the time/date of submission.
6. You may revise your submission up to midnight before draft day, however such edits will change your submission time/date which could hurt you in a tie break situation.

Suggested format for submission is as follows:

• Round 1, D’Long Johnson, LS
• Round 2, George Cantu, P
• Round 3, Laquan Church, K
• Round 5-1, Demetri Jones, OT
• Round 5-2, Ethan Noonan, QB
• Round 7-1, Dra’Michael’La’Trillium Jenkins, WR
• Round 7-2, Nick Lavergne, RB
• UDFA, Antonio Morgan, CB
• UDFA, Ian March, TE
• UDFA, Irving Briggs, OLB

For full points potential, all of the above information types are needed (round #, name, position).

Good luck!

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Late but not forgotten, it is finally time to honor the winner of the 2018 Season Prognosticator award: malsor!Here are the tabulated predictions:

And here are the scores:

The winner is malsor by a landslide, with a low score of 7. There is a three way tie for second, at 10 points, between MWalsh26 (the defending champion), jeffmi, and EstimatedProphet. Dead last is your humble moderator, who was grievously disappointed by the Steelers and their diva superstars, the NFL in general, and the Football Gods who would allow the travesties that unfolded in 2018.

May all of us do better in 2019, including malsor who should be shooting for a perfect score of zero.

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