Archive for category Predictions

2017 Season Prognosticator of the Year

Posted by on Monday, 5 February, 2018

Now that the NFL 2017 season has officially come to a close, we put our Steel Balls supercomputers to work crunching numbers to determine the winner of the coveted LamBalldi Trophy. MWalsh defeated last year’s winner (Army01) by a hair. The race was so close, in order to reach the final result we had to delve into tie breakers.

As for the rest of us, well, it was a sad showing. Two participants (kalel1199 and mwalsh) correctly guessed the final season wins total for the Steelers (13), and another six of us (copanut, tuskeegee_brown, tompaulbillybob, army01, estimatedprophet, and tennbob) were off by only one win. However it should not come as a shock that the Browns were the undoing of the majority of us who incorrectly guessed that the Browns would finally put all of their myriad high draft picks to some use. Boy, were we wrong.

Earl was the most pessimistic (10 Steelers wins) and jamesh the most optimistic (16 wins). Go figure. Who could have ever guessed such soul-mates could have such opposing world views?

Getting back to our winner and runner-up, both had exceptionally strong regular season predictions, with mwalsh nailing the Steelers, Ravens, and Bengals, and only whiffing on the Browns, while army01 was slightly more accurate on playoff wins. As a result they both ended up with 7 points and we had to go to the first tiebreaker where we look at the predicted game by game results. Even that was close, with mwalsh guessing 12 games correctly, compared to 11 for army01.

The full results are summarized below. As for now, cheers to mwalsh, while the rest of us lick our wounds and get ready for our springtime draft predictions.

2017 Season Predictions

Posted by on Friday, 25 August, 2017

The lure of the Steel Balls Trophy beckons you!

It’s that time of year where Steel Ballers put their reputations on the line to make their season predictions. Let me remind you of the rules of engagement:

Rules:

  1. Lowest score wins.
  2. Points are based on accuracy. An exact prediction yields zero points.
  3. Categories include:
    • Final regular season record for each AFCN team.
    • Divisional positioning of AFCN teams.
    • Number of Steelers playoff wins.
  4. Tie breaker: accuracy of game-by-game predictions

If you are too lazy to provide predictions in any of the above categories, you will get maximum points for that category.

Predictions will be accepted until Midnight ET September 9. You may change your predictions up until that time without penalty.

Good luck!

2016 Steel Ball Trophy Winner

Posted by on Monday, 23 January, 2017

Now that we’ve licked our wounds it’s time to crown the 2016 winner of the Steel Ball Trophy. After a satisfying run as reigning champion, copanut must step aside for this year’s winner: Army01. Army01 correctly predicted the Steelers’ wins in both regular season and postseason (11 and 2 respectively and was close enough in divisional predictions to hold the title.

Others are deserving of honorable mention. Abennihana and Tuskeegee_Brown both correctly predicted 11 wins for the Steelers. Tuskeegee_Brown and Malsor both correctly predicted two playoff wins, and malsor even correctly predicted a loss to the Patriots, and along with steelerfan58, correctly predicted the Rats would crawl to the finish with only 8 wins. Nobody foresaw the collapse of the Bengals, although copanut and kalel1199 were closest, while Army01 and mwalsh26 came closest in predicting the near perfect record of the Browns.

Rounding out the bottom were tompaulbillybob and chicosteelersfan, but to be fair it’s not because they are not good predictors. They lost a lot of points for areas where they failed to provide predictions and so got the lowest value by default. Lesson for next year: make sure you cover each category that is being measured.

Here are the results for posterity.

Raw data:

Name Steelers Rec Ravens Rec Bengals Rec Browns Rec Steelers Div Ravens Div Bengals Div Browns Div Playoff Wins
copanut 12 10 9 3 1 2 3 4 3
tompaulbillybob 12 1 4 2 3 3
steelerfan58 12 8 11 5 1 3 2 4 3
kalel1199 13 10 9 4 1 2 3 4 3
army01 11 9 10 2 1 3 2 4 2
tobiathan 12 10 10 9 1 2 2 4 3
malsor 10 8 10 3 1 3 1 4 2
mwalsh26 10 9 11 2 2 3 1 4 1
abennihana 11 9 10 3 1 3 2 4 1
tuskegee_brown 11 9 11 6 1 3 2 4 2
estimatedprophet 9 7 10 5 2 3 1 4 1
chicosteelersfan 12 3
ACTUAL 11 8 6 1 1 2 3 4 2

Scored and sorted results. Scores are the absolute difference between
predicted and actual results.

Name Steelers Rec Ravens Rec Bengals Rec Browns Rec Steelers Div Ravens Div Bengals Div Browns Div Playoff Wins Total
army01 0 1 4 1 0 1 1 0 0 8
copanut 1 2 3 2 0 0 0 0 1 9
malsor 1 0 4 2 0 1 2 0 0 10
abennihana 0 1 4 2 0 1 1 0 1 10
kalel1199 2 2 3 3 0 0 0 0 1 11
steelerfan58 1 0 5 4 0 1 1 0 1 13
mwalsh26 1 1 5 1 1 1 2 0 1 13
tuskegee_brown 0 1 5 5 0 1 1 0 0 13
estimatedprophet 2 1 4 4 1 1 2 0 1 16
tobiathan 1 2 4 8 0 0 1 0 1 17
tompaulbillybob 1 8 6 1 0 2 1 1 1 21
chicosteelersfan 1 8 6 1 1 2 3 4 1 27

2016 Season Predictions

Posted by on Wednesday, 31 August, 2016

ScreenShot1433Time to reach for the glory of the Steel Balls Trophy!

Given that the final preseason game is utterly without meaning and the chances of a star being injured is zero, now is the time to make predictions for the season. Granted, there may still be a signing of significance, such as a veteran CB, or another unanticipated drug bust, but the team is pretty much set at this point so we may as well get on it.

 

Rules:

  1. 1 point if you correctly predict the Steelers’ final regular season record.
  2. 1 point if you correctly predict their playoff positioning.
  3. 1 point for each correctly predicted order of finish in the division.
  4. 1 point for each correct prediction of a divisional opponent record.
  5. 1 point if you correctly predict the number of playoff wins.
  6. Tie breaker: accuracy of game-by-game predictions.

If you are too lazy to make any of the above predictions, you forego the possibility of earning points accordingly.

Predictions will be accepted until Midnight ET September 10. I spent less than two minutes on mine, so let’s not have any whiny excuses. Let’s do it!!

 

2016 Draft Predictions Winner

Posted by on Saturday, 30 April, 2016

As our members appear to be losing their guts to go for the glory, we had only 9 entries from 6 members this year. Here are the results, and it ain’t pretty.

Read the rest of this entry »

Mock on the Clock

Posted by on Thursday, 10 March, 2016

Ah, spring is in the air. The NFL year has begun, free agents are prostituting themselves to the highest bidding johns, and our thoughts turn to our virginal loves in the upcoming draft. That means it’s time for Steel Ballers to put on their thinking caps, gaze into their steel balls, and dive headfirst into the thrills and humiliations of guessing the Steelers’ picks for 2016. Read on for rules and to submit your entry. Read the rest of this entry »

2015 Steel Balls Trophy Winner

Posted by on Monday, 18 January, 2016

Steel Balls TrophyFellow Ballers, another year has come and gone. Sadly it ended a little sooner than hoped, but it was a fascinating season with many positives.

Now is the time for us to review our 2015 season prognostications and crown a new Steel Balls Trophy champion.  It was a tough competition with over 50% of participants correctly predicting the Steelers’ regular season win total. This meant we had to dig deep into the complex and secretly guarded tie-breaking procedures in order to determine a winner beyond dispute.

Please read on to discover this year’s winner.

Read the rest of this entry »

Chris Simms Guarantees a Steelers Win

Posted by on Wednesday, 23 September, 2015


Alas, a guarantee from Chris Simms could be the kiss of death. 80% of his picks last week were wrong.

On the other hand, the only one he got right was Steelers – 49ers, so there’s that.

2015 Season Predictions

Posted by on Thursday, 3 September, 2015

Well now that the travesty that was the preseason is behind us, the time is upon us to fulfill the seminal purpose of Steel Balls, which is to predict the results of the new season.

Those seeking bragging rights must submit entries in the comment section below. You must predict at least the overall record of the Steelers and for tiebreakers, the records and finishing positions of the other AFCN teams.

As always, the winner will be chosen by your humble but benevolent dictator at his sole discretion.

Good luck!

And the Winner of the Daft or Draft Contest Is….

Posted by on Saturday, 2 May, 2015

Well, humility really prevents me from bragging too much, so I’ll just have to say the winner is Steelers Nation for what appears to be an excellent haul from the college ranks.

To recap the results of the contest, I made three correct guesses in my alternate mock that began with an OLB selection. I had guessed Eli Harold on the assumption that Dupree would never make it to the 22nd pick, but I am happy to be wrong on that one because things broke the Steelers way.

In that mock, I predicted the Steelers would choose an OLB, two CBs, a WR, and a TE in the first five picks and indeed that’s how it worked out. In terms of names, I correctly predicted Golson, Coates, and James, but missed on Dupree and Grant (having instead guessed at Harold and Rowe). Still, for me this is not only a personal best but almost ridiculous good luck.

I have been waiting by my phone for hours, but for some reason the FO has not yet called to invite me to join the scouting department. Maybe Colbert is afraid of being upstaged.

The runner up was Abennihana, who correctly predicted Jesse James and Gerod Holliman, and as a bonus also identified UDFA Cameron Clear.