Steel Balls

Now that the NFL 2017 season has officially come to a close, we put our Steel Balls supercomputers to work crunching numbers to determine the winner of the coveted LamBalldi Trophy. MWalsh defeated last year’s winner (Army01) by a hair. The race was so close, in order to reach the final result we had to delve into tie breakers.

As for the rest of us, well, it was a sad showing. Two participants (kalel1199 and mwalsh) correctly guessed the final season wins total for the Steelers (13), and another six of us (copanut, tuskeegee_brown, tompaulbillybob, army01, estimatedprophet, and tennbob) were off by only one win. However it should not come as a shock that the Browns were the undoing of the majority of us who incorrectly guessed that the Browns would finally put all of their myriad high draft picks to some use. Boy, were we wrong.

Earl was the most pessimistic (10 Steelers wins) and jamesh the most optimistic (16 wins). Go figure. Who could have ever guessed such soul-mates could have such opposing world views?

Getting back to our winner and runner-up, both had exceptionally strong regular season predictions, with mwalsh nailing the Steelers, Ravens, and Bengals, and only whiffing on the Browns, while army01 was slightly more accurate on playoff wins. As a result they both ended up with 7 points and we had to go to the first tiebreaker where we look at the predicted game by game results. Even that was close, with mwalsh guessing 12 games correctly, compared to 11 for army01.

The full results are summarized below. As for now, cheers to mwalsh, while the rest of us lick our wounds and get ready for our springtime draft predictions.

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to Auger In  -  verb; to crash (e.g., an aircraft) into the ground. Named for the large crater an aircraft makes in the ground when it crashes at high speed. 
Examples: "The Baltimore Ravens augered in two years in a row, first due to the Steelers 'Immaculate Extension', and then, inexplicably, at the hands of a desperate Red Rocket."

How far did the Ravens fall in the blink of an eye? According to ESPN, they entered the day with a 97% chance of making the playoffs. In the space of a few seconds, they plunged over the cliff like Thelma and Louise:

That’s two years in a row where the Ravens controlled their destiny to have it snatched away at the final seconds by a defensive collapse, with multiple defenders flailing on the ground. What do you say, John?

+1

I really do not think that Ben creates a 6 point swing vs the Ravens this week.

Don’t get me wrong. You want your best players on the field for every game vs. a rival. If he’s healthy enough to play, he should play. Is he better than Landry? Gawd, yes! But is he a six-point-swing better? I doubt it.
Ben doesn’t have the best track record vs the Ravens in particular, especially vs. Dean Pees’ Baltimore defenses. I don’t know why, but Pees seems to have his number, especially when the games are played at Ratland Stadium, where Ben is 0-4 in his last 4 starts, has thrown 3 TDs and 6 INTs and owns a passer rating of 69.76.

Ben’s Career vs. The Ratbirds:

If you would like to see a larger version of this table, just click on the image.

Steelers’ backup QBs are 1-3 vs Harbaugh and 1-4 under Tomlin vs the Rats, respectively. I’ve also included Landry’s career stats here for discussion.
It can be argued that the best game any Steelers QB has ever had, at Baltimore, vs a Dean Pees coordinated Ravens defense was in 2012, under Charlie Batch.
I do not  recognize Mike Vick’s game because it was at home and his yards per attempt was anemic. But, otherwise those backups did “ok” when compared to what Ben has done vs. Baltimore the past 5 seasons.

This week’s game is further complicated by the fact that Ben has not played in three weeks. I should not need to remind you of Ben’s track record in games coming back from injury. But just in case you’d like to read about it: An article from last season.
Granted, Ben seems to play exponentially worse the longer the layoff and this was a short one. That may give you reason for some optimism.

I do believe that Ben is the best option Sunday, even at 80% of normal health. I just don’t think that he’s 6 points better than a healthy backup.

*Interesting point that many may not be aware of: Pees was also the Patriots Defensive Coordinator from 2006 through 2009. He reportedly did not get along well with King Bill.
**Also interesting, Ben has missed a TON of games vs the Rats. Seven games missed in 11 seasons has to be a personal record for games missed vs one opponent.

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*Hi Ricky! Alas, this is the last flight of the Bumblebees. *sniff* (my eyes are sweating)

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+1

My buddy Richie S. comes to Portland on a Monday and the only time I can see him is during the Steelers Monday Night game vs. the Chargers. So basically, I told him that was what we were doing. There wasn’t really even a, “Hey, how do you feel about this?” type of suggestion floated out to Richie. I said, “This is going on.” He said, “Sounds like fun!”

Richie shows up, cheers for the Steelers, has a good time. It’s evident from the TV coverage (and subsequent stories that Rivers went to a silent count during a home game) that Qualcomm Stadium has been taken over by Steelers fans. Jonny has been sack tapped the week before as a good luck omen (long story). All seems right with the World. Steelers win. We go home because we all have to work the next day.

Fast forward 24 hours and Richie gets outed by my buddy Matt T. as a Raiders fan. On the one hand, after finding out that Richie was actually a Raiders fan, I thought to myself, “What the hell? I would never put on the shirt of another team and cheer for them, no matter how much I liked one of their fans.”
Then, “Oh, what the heck? We won. Why question it? Maybe it was because Richie finally left the Dark Side. The football gods must have rewarded us with our first West Coast road win in a decade due to my intervention in his sporting life.”

Fast forward again to this past weekend. Richie texts me about how our two favorite teams are playing.
I respond with, “You only get one team, Richie.”
He responds with, “That would be the one.”
I knew then that we would win. I was absolutely certain that the football gods would punish Richie’s wishy-washy, flip floppiness with a Raider loss. Then mid 1st quarter, Dan sack taps Jonny with his Terrible Towel and the outcome was all but completely certain.

I felt pretty bad about goading Richie into turning his back on his favorite team and fellow fans for a second….

Well, no I actually didn’t. It just seemed like a polite thing to write. But, you all know me and realize statements like that are BS. So, nevermind.

Fast forward again to the Sunday. Steelers are up 35-28 and cruising toward a victory, I’m teetering between whether I should send a conciliatory text to Richie or just taunt the heck out of him for showing some fair weather fan tendencies, thus sending his team on the path toward defeat at the Steelers’ hands.

And then,…. Aldon Smith stumbles while trying to tackle Roethlisberger and lands on Ben’s left foot. Watching the replay, I was sure that Roethlisberger’s foot was broken. Hoped not, but really thought it was.

It turns out that Big Ben’s injury was only a sprain. He will probably miss a week, but Monday morning on his radio show said that he is not counting himself out this week versus the Browns.

Just the same, I probably should have waited to gloat until it was over. That’s what I get.

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The Steelers owe thanks to the Ravens. Click the link and I’ll explain why.

There was a fair amount of fan hand wringing and consternation following the dramatic events of 2015 Draft Day #2, when Ravens GM extraordinaire Ozzie Newsome pole vaulted over the Steelers to nab tight end Maxx Williams in the second round. Many fans had been counting on the Steelers selecting Williams and were inconsolable following the Ravens action, and even more freaked out upon learning the Steelers’ selection of cornerback Senquez Golson. Maybe the Steelers panicked, maybe the Ravens panicked, but it says here that it’s most likely the fans panicked. In any case, Steelers fans owe a debt of thanks to the Wizard of Oz.

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+4

Here are mine. Add yours in comments.

• Deebo sacking Flacco twice; makes Mean Joe proud.
• Ben’s six TDs and breaking a record and a million Baltimore hearts.
• Humiliation on the face of Hairball.
• Hairball whining having no effect on the refs for a change.
• Ben taking hits and getting better.
• Flacco taking hits and getting worse.
• Brad Wing as a better QB prospect than Landry Jones.
• Martavis Bryant performance evolving from surprise to expected.
• News clipping makes its way from Pittsburgh Press to NBC via Steel Balls.
• Al Michaels quote, “James Harrison is the AARP Player of the Week”.

I know there are many more, so let’s hear yours….

+2

Olbermann takes no prisoners in this rant, correctly pointing out the conspiratorial nature of the NFL handling of the Rice case, and how it should bring down Goodell as well as key figures in the Ravens  hierarchy. He perhaps overreaches a little when he calls for a boycott of Ravens games (not because he’s wrong, but because it will never happen), but it’s still a good rant. h/t JAMESH

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