Draft or Daft? Gaze into your Steel Ball.
Steel Balls exists because way back in the day the P-G chat regulars were looking for a place to post their prognostications so that everyone could revel in their brilliance. It seems that every fan has a memory of being right about pretty much everything in Steelers history, unlike the always flawed coaching staff, front office, as well as local and national media.
Turns out that maybe our memories are a little inaccurate and that we don’t guess correctly nearly as often as we seem to recall. Once those predictions are posted for all the world to see and review, it becomes more difficult to be so omniscient as we might wish.
So here is your chance to put your brilliance on display. We’ve all enjoyed reviewing various draft options and mock after mock for the past couple of months. Now that the draft is upon us, let us record for posterity our best prognostications, after which we can know who shall own the bragging rights for best Steelers insight.
As usual, I will consider myself successful if I get even one pick right, but I know the rest of you aspire to better accuracy than that.
Here are the rules:
- We are only interested in Steelers pick predictions. This is fitting in that only the Steelers matter.
- Remember you are predicting who you think the Steelers WILL pick, not who you think they SHOULD pick. You’ll have plenty of opportunity to drone on about the drafting incompetence of Colbert and Tomlin as the year progresses. Our purpose here today is to predict what they will do, “stupid” or not.
- You must provide a projected pick for each round including comp picks.
- You can provide as many as two lists. We all know that missing the first pick, particularly if the position selection is wrong, will immediately kill the rest of your predictions. As such, you get a mulligan in that you can have two completely different lists.
- Whoever gets the most correct picks in a single mock list will be declared the winner. Correct picks are correct names, not necessarily correct rounds. The first tiebreaker is the quantity of correct names AND rounds. The second tiebreaker is the number of correct picks in both lists (assuming you submit two different lists).
- Ravens suck.
Have at it ladies and gents!
I’ll get the party started.
I find this year’s draft particularly vexing because it can go so many different ways. Most people now seem to be leaning toward the Steelers picking Marcus Peters, and there is certainly a good chance of that happening. In some sense that is now the easy consensus choice. I’m going a different direction.
I believe the Steelers’ preference is to pick an OLB in the first round because they value that position much higher than CB; the Steelers picking a first round DB is about as rare as duck’s teeth. If they can get one of the top OLBs, that is what they will do. I think the three they would consider at #22 are Beasley, Fowler, and Dupree. Unfortunately, I don’t think either Beasley or Fowler will get past the top 10 or so, and probably the same is true for Dupree.
Therefore with my first list, I’m going CB, and with a surprise choice: Byron Jones
I think the Steelers will pass on Marcus Peters, and both Trae Waynes and Kevin Johnson will already be gone. That makes Byron Jones next man up on the CB list, and the kind of “special” player the Steelers covet in their first rounders with a combination of althetic ability and high character. Jones will not be an immediate starter on defense, but is an exciting player with “special sauce”, could go CB or S – both areas of need, and can play special teams while he learns in his first year. Maybe he could also be a return man.
The choice of a CB in the first round almost dictates an OLB in the second round. I could see Nate Orchard or a couple of other guys here, but I’m going with Lorenzo Mauldin who looks like an animal who could be trained in the mold of James Harrison.
1. Byron Jones CB
2. Lorenzo Mauldin OLB
3. Sanquez Golson CB
4. Jeff Heuerman TE
5. Donovan Smith OT
6. Matt Jones RB
6c. Ryan Russell, OLB
7. Devin Gardner WR
In my second set, I assume the Steelers are dead set against selecting a CB in the first round and, failing to find a trade-down partner they reach a little to get the best remaining OLB. Having done that, they double dip at CB for the next two picks, then spend most of the rest on offense.
1. Eli Harold OLB
2. Eric Rowe CB
3. Sanquez Golson CB
4. Sammie Coates WR
5. Jesse James TE
6. Kyle Emanuel OLB
6c. David Cobb RB
7. Quinton Spain, OG
I’d put Shaq Thomson in as a wildcard but that would be cheating. He’s another one of those “special sauce” guys the Steelers covet, so his selection in round 1 or 2 wouldn’t shock me in the least even if he is a little light for an OLB and not a traditional pass rusher. He’s the opposite of a one trick pony, and could provide some of the spice missing since Troy’s prime. Always good to send the Flaccos of the world into a confused downward spiral.
The same reason I have them selecting an OLB in the 1st is what you mentioned, that it’s a position they covet–also because as soon as this off season began, AR2 said he wantd to see an emphasis on improving the pass rush; the last time he made such a remark was when he said he wanted to see an improved run game, and they selected Bell in the 2nd…when he speaks, they don’t just listen, they respond
I really don’t have the patience to do a two set mock, so please forgive my laziness or lack of patience, whichever fits the bill.
Here goes:
rd 1: Shane Ray (DE/OLB)not who I would want or even expect them to select, but who I thinkn they will end up selecting
rd 2: Alex Carter (CB)–would be a good selection if there–I could even see a trade scenario to move up to get him–though I didn’t mock the trade, as that’s just a logistical nightmare, but I still reserve the right to declare “I was right”
rd 3: Devin Funchess (TE) they need one, might as well get one sooner in the 3rd than in the 6th or 7th and watch him wilt on the PS
rd 4: Cam Thomas (CB) they’ll need more than 1
rd 5: Kurtis Drummond (S) would have liked to have selected one sooner than this, but it just didn’t work out that way
rd 6: Josh Harper (WR) got throw one in somewhere
rd 7: Rob Havenstein (OL) project, but a big cat at 6-7, plus he’s got a great name
rd 7 Comp: Taylor Heinicke (QB) pure homer pick, since I’ve watched him play the last 4 years at ODU–granted he played the 1st 3 years in the FCS, he still put up some gaudy numbers, he has quick feet and his eyes are always downfield, and he’s intelligent. Not a rocket arm like Ben and a bit undersized at 6’1, but a solid potential back up
Are you still picking Ray if he’s there?
Yup, no different than Gregory or Peters in my opinion
There is one small difference in Peters/Gregory and Ray TPBB. Gregory and Ray were idiots while Peters was an asshole. Doing something stupid before the combine or 3 days before the draft is borderline moronic, butting heads with your coaches until you’re shown the door is a DNA defect. That’s a couple incidents of stupidity vs. a whole season and a half of being an ass. That being said, in my 2nd list I took Peters because I think the Steelers will if he’s there (whether I like him or not).
It’s an oddity of today’s society that the behavioral problem is somehow less concerning than the essentially benign use of pot. From a football point of view, pot should be no more concerning than alcohol, while a hothead could cause locker room problems. But I’d be more likely to take the hothead than the pothead, because the pothead can get suspended, repeatedly, which disrupts play on the field, while the hotheadedness is more of a distraction outside the field of play.
Personally I’d avoid both, but if the Steelers are comfortable that Peters’ hot head can be properly channeled against the competition rather than his own sideline, that might be the fire they are looking for.
Well, I can follow your logic with that
#58 was a hothead! Just not with the coaches. I agree copa that if hotheaded/assholism can be channeled it can be an advantage. Problem is most of those types only have one channel.
I posted something yesterday that essentially read, “How many of the best pass rushers are/were choir boys?”. Jim Wexell often talks about the swagger and just plain meanness that players like Greg Lloyd, James Harrison, Joey Porter, Kevin Greene and others carried themselves with. If we can find a guy who is an asshole on the field, but uses sense off of it, I’d be pretty pleased.
I was close–and I still envision a trade scenario for Carter…standby
My almost annual 2014 version of another BS mock draft that after you get past the top ten I (and no one else) have a clue about other than what I’ve read!
1 – Eli Harold (OLB) (a touch of homer but I would like him even if he didn’t go to UVA))
2 – Eric Rowe (CB)
3 – P.J. Williams (CB) (probably not there but I can hope)
4 – James Sample (SS) (no confidence in Shamarko)
5 – Jake Ryan (OLB) BPA that’s an OLB???
6 – Nick O’Leary (TE) (Not a popular choice here I’m sure, but as TPBB says, purely a homer pick)
7 – Cedric Thompson (FS) (A steal if we can get him this late and I’ll go out on a limb and say camp surprise player for some team)
7 – Robert Myers (OG)
FA – Julian Wilson (CB)
FA – Michael Dyer (RB)
I would not be unhappy with this result!
Somehow I missed the “two lists” limit. Probably like my first list, a lot of wishful thinking here.
1 – Marcus Peters (CB)
2 – Owamagbe Odighizuwa (OLB)
3 – Josh Shaw (CB)
4 – Jeff Heuerman (TE)
5 – Cody Prewitt (FS)
6 – Stefon Diggs (WR)
6c- Derrick Lott (DT/DE)
7 – Jarvis Harrison (OG)
Alright. Here’s my well thought out, extremely reasoned…….. wild assed guess:
1. Marcus Peters, CB: I believe the UW coaches are bad mouthing players from the previous regime “off the record” for some reason. It gives the Peters stories less credibility as far as I’m concerned. The Steelers seem interested and from a talent standpoint, he is an excellent, fantastic, outstanding fit. Redundance noted as necessary.
2. Preston Smith, OLB: think of him as the antithesis of Jarvis Jones. He is strong enough already and could actually slim down and be more effective, not to say that he is at all fat. He’s not. Good hand fighter, good at setting the edge, but with enough speed to get to the QB (1.6 sec 10 yard split)
3. Alex Carter, CB: Good all around skill set, smart player, Zone CB, not a man or press guy but could be a good CB3 in a year or two.
4. Jesse James, TE: Decent hands, decent blocker, especially on the move.
5. Gerod Holliman, FS: “heady” safety unlike the guy they have manning the free safety spot now. Had dinner with Tomlin and Colbert the night before his pro day.
6. Matt Jones, RB
6b. Xavier Cooper, DE
7 Nick Marshall, FS/CB/QB
Priority Free Agents:
Matt Rotheram, OG PItt
Cameron Clear, OT/TE
CJ Uzomah, TE
I could also see them going Eli Harold in the 1st reasoning that taking a good pass rusher projection is fine because a 1st year OLB won’t contribute much anyway. And, then taking Eric Rowe in the 2nd.
I think they will get Dupree in the 1st!!!! LOL
Me too!!!!!!!!!!!!!!