Steel Balls

Much has been written about ball deflation helping Tom Brady in his throws. Some has also been written about deflation helping the Patriots with their fumble statistics. What about fumbles specifically by Brady?

Brady allegedly has smallish hands that can make it more difficult to grip and hold onto a harder football. In fact, as reported at Steelers Depot, Brady testified that he lost sleep over this issue. While lobbying in 2006 for the NFL to allow teams to supply their own balls, Brady said “there’ve been nights before road games when I have had trouble sleeping because I’m thinking about what kind of footballs I’ll be throwing the next day”. Partly thanks to Brady’s lobbying, teams were allowed to supply balls from 2007 onward.

How did this rule change impact Brady’s ability to hold onto the ball? Other than Brady and perhaps “The Deflator”, nobody can say for sure that balls were systematically underinflated going back to 2007, but Brady’s fumble statistics are certainly eye popping.

From 2001 to 2006, Brady fumbled 59 times in 94 starts, or 0.63 times per start. From 2007 to 2014, he fumbled 37 times in 112 starts, or 0.33 times per start. In other words, his fumble rate was almost exactly cut in half coincident with the rule change. This is a huge statistical disparity that cannot be random chance.

As a point of comparison, Ben Roethlisberger has fumbled 78 times in 158 starts, or 0.49 times per start. In other words, despite playing behind a frequently porous offensive line, and despite his freewheeling style that famously includes holding the ball too long and taking big hits, Roethlisberger fumbled significantly less frequently than pre-rule-change Brady but significantly more frequently than post-rule-change Brady.

Turnover rate is usually considered the most important correlation with winning percentage. Historically, teams that win the turnover battle win about 75% – 80% of the time. Further, a team’s most prolific fumbler is almost always the quarterback. Brady is the biggest fumbler for the Patriots, even with his current lower fumble rate. It seems clear that if the quarterback’s fumble rate can be cut in half, the team’s chance of winning will increase accordingly, making this particular statistic the single most impactful component for team success. About this, there can be zero doubt.

The only open question is whether Brady’s amazing 50% reduction in fumble rate is purely coincidental, or due to his improvement as a player, or due to other factors such as…. (a) having a significantly better grip on an under-inflated ball, (b) having league rules making it difficult to touch him, (c) having league rules such as the Tuck Rule to make fumbles more difficult to call, and maybe (d) having surveillance-assisted advance knowledge of what the defense is planning to do. There does seem to be a pattern of evidence that the Patriots have been systematically working to alter or evade the rules specifically to reduce Brady’s turnover rate.

Is there anyone who thinks that if the Steelers could somehow cut Roethlisberger’s fumbles in half, this would not present a substantial advantage in the win column? Indeed the Steelers have tried to improve this aspect of the game by building a better offensive line, improving the OL coaching, and the Haley system that encourages Roethlisberger to not hold the ball as long. The difference is that the Steelers approach, as with most teams, is to work within game rules while the Patriots approach seems to rely heavily on either getting the rules changed, skirting the rules entirely, or in the case of Deflategate, both.

ADDENDUM

Oh, it gets even more interesting when we look at broader QB stats for Brady.

* #9 among active quarterbacks, #13 all-time
* #2 among active quarterbacks, #2 all-time

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