2018 Draft Predictions
Here we go, Steelers, here we go! Time for your draft predictions, 2018 edition. With the draft coming up in just three weeks, there’s no time to waste.
- You will be granted one point for each pick correctly identified by name, regardless of when they are picked. For example, if you predict that John Doe will be picked in round 1 but he is actually picked in round 2, you will still get one point.
- You will be granted one point for each correct position/round combination. The specific player need not be correct, and in fact need not be specified at all. For example, if you said the first round pick would be safety John Doe (or just safety), and the actual first round pick is safety D’Long Johnson, this would be one point. Note that if the first round pick is John Doe you will have two points, one for the correct name, and one for the correct position/round combo. If you select a multi-position player (such as S/OLB) where you did not pick the correct name you will gain a half point if the actual selection matches one of the positions of your guessed player but only if you identify both positions in the pick. For example if your pick is a DE that you project as playing OLB, then you should identify the position as OLB. If the Steelers then select a different player who is a true OLB you will get full credit. If you identify DE/OLB you will get half credit in that instance.
- You may specify up to three UDFA picks.
- You will gain a bonus point if you correctly predict a trade up or down.
- In the event of a tie, the participant who entered his submission earlier will be the winner based on the time/date of submission.
- You may revise your submission up to midnight before draft day, however such edits will change your submission time/date which could hurt you in a tie break situation.
Suggested format for submission is as follows:
- Round 1, D’Long Johnson, LS
- Round 2, George Cantu, P
- Round 3, Laquan Church, K
- Round 5-1, Demetri Jones, OT
- Round 5-2, Ethan Noonan, QB
- Round 7-1, Dra’Michael’La’Trillium Jenkins, WR
- Round 7-2, Nick Lavergne, RB
- UDFA, Antonio Morgan, CB
- UDFA, Ian March, TE
- UDFA, Irving Briggs, OLB
For full points potential, all of the above information types are needed (round #, name, position).
Good luck!
My predictions, which of course will be 100% accurate, are as follows:
Round 1, Rashaan Evans, ILB
Round 2, Darius Leanard, OLB
Round 3, Nick Chubb, RB
Round 5-1, Allan Lazard, WR/TE/KR
Round 5-2, Geron Christian, OT
Round 7-1, Tre Flowers, SS
Round 7-2, Kevin Toliver, CB
UDFA, Joe Ostman, DE
UDFA, Justin Watson, WR
UDFA, Zachary Crabtree, OT
I see the Steelers double-dipping at linebacker with the first two picks. The needs to backfill for Shazier and to generate more pass rush are too big to ignore.
I believe S is no longer a high priority pick, in fact a safety will be taken with a late flyer pick.
Would love to see a trade up to get Tremaine Edmunds if he is anywhere reachable, but seems very unlikely. He would be a real impact player to put the team over the top. However Evans should be a solid player in the mold of Timmons.
Would take Guice over Chubb (and possibly then withdrawing LB’s tag) but he probably won’t be there at 92. Toliver may be too much of a problem child, but with such a late pick is worth the risk.
There you have it. Take it to the bank.
Now that there is a third round pick, here is my modified draft. Doesn’t count for the contest of course.
Round 2, Darius Leanard, OLB
Round 3-1, Nick Chubb, RB or Auden Tate, WR
Round 3-2, Allan Lazard, WR/TE/KR, or Kalen Ballage, RB
Round 5-1, Joel Iyiegbuniwe, LB
Round 5-2, Geron Christian, OT
Round 7-1, Simmie Cobbs, WR
Round 7-2, Kevin Toliver, CB
UDFA, Joe Ostman, DE
UDFA, Justin Watson, WR
UDFA, Zachary Crabtree, OT
Round 1, Rashaan Evans, ILB
Round 2, Justin Reid, FS
Round 3, Arden Key, OLB
Round 5-1, Justin Jackson, RB
Round 5-2, Kyle Allen, QB
Round 7-1, Jester Weah, WR
Round 7-2, Kameron Kelly, DT
UDFA 1, Lowell Lotulelei, DT
UDFA 2, Avonte Maddox, CB
UFDA 3, Joseph Noteboom, T — doubt he’ll be there, but just a cool frigging name
Here goes…..
1st – S Justin Reid – Stanford
2nd – WR Christian Kirk – Texas A&M
3rd – ILB Darius Leonard – South Carolina State
5th – DL Bilal Nichols – Delaware
5th – LB Joel Iyiegbuniwe – Western Kentucky
7th – NT Joshua Frazier – Alabama
7th – WR Russell Gage Jr. – LSU
UDFA – OT Jordan Mailata
UDFA – DE Curtis Cothran – Penn State
UDFA – QB/WR/RB Reggie Bonnafon – Louisville
Just for fun, here is Ray Fittipaldo’s guess:
Round 1, Rashaan Evans, ILB
Round 2, Jessie Bates, S
Round 3, Dante Pettis, WR
Round 5-1, PJ Hall, DL
Round 5-2, Akrum Wadley, RB
Round 7-1, Joel Iyiegbuniwe, ILB
Round 7-2, Jordan Mailata, OL
What I think the Steelers will actually do in the draft:
1st: Justin Reid, S – The Steelers will stand pat and let the draft come to them, while still netting a quality player, as usual. Get ready for lots of 3 safety sets with Vince Williams coming off the field on 3rd downs.
2nd: James Washington, WR – And we all thought tghey spent so much time talking to Mason Rudolph to get interest on the QB. Washington is a legitimate #2 WR prospect.
3rd: Darius Leonard, ILB (Mack) – A better athlete than football player at this stage, Leonard is a good candidate to sit behind Jon Bostic for the first half of 2018 learning the position.
5th A: Dorance Armstrong, OLB – another project player for Joey Porter to work with. Think of him as Anthony Chickillo 2.0 with better pass rush moves.
5th B: Kendrick Norton, NT – A replacement for the failed Dan McCullers experiment. The Steelers need a situational defensive lineman to plug up the middle of the line in short yardage situations.
7th A: Joel Iyiegbuniwe, ILB – I really do believe that the Steelers will seek to strengthen the depth at ILB this year.
7th B: Jordan Mailata, OT – a project player for the mad scientist Mike Munchak to turn into a legitimate NFL player. I only see this pick because I believe that if they wait to sign him as a UDFA, he may go somewhere else in the hopes of making the team as a rookie.
Here is what I would do if I made the Steelers draft decisions this year:
1st: Leighton Vander Esch, ILB – Find a way to trade up and take the guy who is going to solve your problems at Mack LB. I don’t think he lasts til 28.
2nd: Jesse Bates, S – The only quality true free safety prospect in this draft doesn’t rate a 1st round pick, in my opinion. But, he’s a smart, solid player who’ll probably start in the NFL for 8 to 10 years.
3rd: Courtland Sutton, WR – A tall rangy WR, a smart player who runs good routes and could become a #2 WR in the future. (note: because I traded up for LVE, I probably don’t even have a pick here.)
5th A: Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, OLB – A pass rusher who relies more on power than pass rush moves, “Obo” could develop into a solid depth player at a position where the Steelers have none. The only guys under contract right now at OLB for 2019 are TJ Watt, Keion Adams and Bud Dupree’s team option. (again, probably don’t have a pick at all due to the trade)
5th B: Kalen Ballage, RB – A versatile, do everything pretty well, if nothing outstanding RB who’ll be a good rotational RB at the next level.
7th A: Joel Iyiegbuniwe, ILB – A nice project player at the position who can play special teams for a few years while he learns the NFL ropes.
7th B: Greg Senat, OT – based upon his play last season, Matt Feiler’s future is at Guard and Senat, if he can make the team in some capacity, fills the void at 9th offensive lineman.
Just commentary:
As you read Steelers Mocks leading up to the 2016 NFL Draft, you may have been led to believe that the Steelers had their sights set on Andrew Billings in the 1st round. A number of Steelers fansites tried very hard to convince us, and themselves, that attention paid meant that the player had the talent to be taken with a 1st round pick. Billings eventually went in the 4th round. And no, they didn’t discover a knee injury during his pro day. That’s a myth started by someone trying to cover their own evaluation mistakes, rather than owning them. (BTW, I loved the Jarvis Jones pick. Got that wrong!)
Billings was, and still is to this day, seen as a two down player that didn’t merit a high pick.
In 2017, the same story played out for Carl Lawson. He was, and is, a very good pass rusher. Unfortunately, playing the Edge involves more than just rushing the passer (Although Bruce Irvin has made quite a living at doing nothing but that.) Lawson, like Billings, also fell to the 4th because he either can’t, or is uninterested in being a good edge setter, pursuing plays that are going away from him and was a question mark in coverage. Not that it means he couldn’t do it. Teams just weren’t sure. And again, he was healthy. The injury stories you’ve read were started by guys trying to cover their own evaluation fails.
Where am I going with this, you ask? Web evaluators, in my opinion, sometimes become emotionally involved in prospects they identify as good players early in the process and work hard at convincing themselves that the player has more value than he actually does. I believe this is is caused by two things, 1) a strong desire to be right, sometimes an unconscious one, and 2) a true desire to see the players they like succeed. Be wary of what you read. Question everything and use multiple sources to draw your conclusions. And, if you’re really ambitious, watch their film. The Googlewebs are a wonderful thing. And DO NOT just watch highlights. They give you very little insight into what a player’s opportunities for improvement are.
Also note that the Steelers talk to a TON of prospects. Colbert says they’d like to talk to every draft eligible player, but it’s not physically possible. Interest paid does not equal them locking in on any specific player.
1)Rashaan Evans-ILB Alabama
2)Lorenzo Carter-OLB Georgia
3)terrell Edmunds-S Virginia Tech
5-1)DaeSean Hamilton- WR Penn State
5-2)Nyheim Hines- RB- N.C.State
7-1)Matthew Thomas- ILB- Florida State
7-2)Deadrin Senat- NT South Florida
Here it is after an exhausting hour of research:
RD1 – Justin Reid, S
RD2 – Darius Leonard, ILB
RD3 – Dante Pettis, WR
RD5 – Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, OLB
RD5 – Bo Scarbrough, RB
RD7 – John Atkins, DT
RD7 – Greg Senat, OT
UDFA – Joel Iyiegbuniwe, ILB
UDFA – Jordan Mailata, OT
UDFA – Reggie Bonnafon, RB