Steel Balls

Another season has come and gone, and another Baller can lay claim to superior football knowledge. The final results are in the table below. I’m only showing the “delta” tabulations – the difference between our guesses and the final result.

This year, by popular request, I added a bonus point for the person who most closely predicted the Steelers’ final result, although you may be happy to know that it didn’t matter. TomPaulBillyBob and Tuskegee_Brown both accurately chose the Steelers final tally of 10 wins, but Mr. BillyBob blew everyone away by also accurately predicting the Ravens’ 12 wins, and missing out on the Bengals by only one point. With his bonus point, he pretty much lapped the field with a total score of 4. There was a three way tie for second place between Tuskegee_Brown, Copanut, and tennbob, but I think we can give the edge to Tuskegee_Brown for more accurately predicting the Steelers’ record.

Last place goes to Earl, who took a big hit for not submitting guesses for the rest of the division, but on his Steelers pick he beat out MWalsh26 and drock, with their chronic underestimation of the Power of Tomlin to pull out yet another winning season. If we’re going for last place on the Steelers prediction, we’ll have to give the edge to MWalsh26, because drock edged him out on the tiebreakers. They both correctly guessed the 2nd most receiving yards (Friermuth) and exactly divined the total touchdowns thrown (21), but drock predicted Wilson would have the most starts, while MWalsh26 went with Fields.

Dishonorable Mention goes to JAMESH, who had a ghost writer submit his usual 17-0 prediction. He finished with a score of 22, which is kinda sad, until you consider that Earl finished with 27.

May we all have better luck in 2025.

+1

Make your 2024 season predictions below. Same rules as previous seasons. Entries must be submitted by midnight before the season opening game.

Please include (1) W/L predictions for each Steelers game, (2) season records for each team in the division, and (3) tie breakers. If you fail to submit the tie breakers, you lose the tie.

Here is your prediction template. Good luck.

01 – @ATL
02 – @DEN
03 – LAC
04 – @IND
05 – DAL
06 – @LVR
07 – NYJ
08 – NYG
09 – Bye
10 – @WAS
11 – BAL
12 – @CLE
13 – @CIN
14 – CLE
15 – @PHL
16 – @BAL
17 – KC
18 – CIN

Standings (wins):
Steelers –
Bengals –
Browns –
Ravens –

Tie Breakers:

• Who has the most starts: Russell Wilson or Justin Fields?
• Who has the second most number of receiving yards on the season?
• # touchdowns thrown.

Edit 9/2/24: We’ll add a tweak to the scoring this year. To give extra weight to the Steelers wins predictions, we’ll add a bonus point for the person who comes closest on that metric. The way our scoring works (lowest score wins), this means a point will be subtracted from the overall score.

+2

Another magnificent draft by the guru team of Khan and Weidl is in the books, but as happy as we are with the results of the real draft, there were some fantastic mocks submitted by our own ballers. In fact, all of the submissions were pretty great and mostly credible, even those that came in dead last. Here are the results:

Total Points:

1. drock – 8
2. EstimatedProphet (mock 2) – 5
3. copanut (mock 2) – 4
4. EstimatedProphet (mock 1) – 2
5. Tie (in order of submission):

• • MWalsh26 (mock 1) – 1
  • MWalsh26 (mock 2) – 1
  • copanut (mock 1) – 1
  • Earl – 1
  • TomPaulBillyBob – 1
  • Eleven – 1

Yes, drock nearly lapped the field by guessing the correct position for four different rounds, including the first three picks, and correctly guessing the selections of Frazier and Watts. Kindly, drock spared us further humiliation by not bothering to submit UDFA selections.

A couple of honorable mentions:

• Though Mack did not submit an official mock, he gets an honorary point for applying mental pressure to the Steelers to take a center worthy of playing for the Steelers. Besides, anyone puttering around in a Steelers golf cart deserves an honorary point.
• I’m granting a -1 point to JamesH for failing to submit a mock despite having worn out the simulator servers with endless simulations.

DISCLAIMER: I always manage to make at least one error in tabulation, so look over your mocks and compare to my evaluation to make sure I got it right. If you find a mistake in my tabulation, let me know. Although it’s pretty unlikely that I made enough mistakes for drock to lose the title, it could be that one of us cellar-dwellers might arise from the muck to claim sole possession of 5th place.

+2

April 25th. Draft Day. The magical day of perennial hope is fast approaching. It’s a day we long for each year, usually beginning about five minutes into the first quarter of the first Wildcard game.

You have up until the day before the draft to produce your predictions: have your predictions in no later than end of day April 24th. If you submit a mock earlier than that, you may edit the mock up until the deadline (e.g., in the event of a signing or trade that wrecks your initial mock). 

Please use the following format as a template. Any deviation from this format that causes me to have to interpret your gibberish will result in unfavorable scoring, so beware.

Identify any trades if applicable
Round (Pick) – Position, Name, School
1 (17)  – WR, Moe Howard, Harvard
2 (32)  – ILB, Larry Fine, Yale
2 (49)  – OG, Curly Howard, Stanford
3 (80) – RB, Shemp Howard, Princeton
4 (120) – NT, Joe DeRita, Brown
7 (234) – SS, Joe Besser, Penn
7 (241) – PK, Emil Sitka, Allegheny County Community College
Add up to five UFAs

This year, you may submit up to two mocks: one without any trades, and one with trades.

As in the past, you will be given two points for each correct name, and one point for each correct position/round combination. For UDFA selections, you will get a point only for a specific name. I may give or take other points for special predictions or egregious failures, at my sole dictatorial discretion.

Trades: Given the difficulty and risks of predicting a trade, I will grant bonus points for a successful prediction. If you predict a trade, you will be granted bonus points as follows:

• +1 if you correctly predict the trade partner
• +1 if you correctly predict the Steelers pick position(s) being traded
• +5 if you correctly predict the partner, the Steelers pick position(s) and the partner’s pick position(s)

I normally kick things off with my own predictions, but I’m not quite ready yet. There is still time for you to have the glory of being first.

Good luck, ladies and gentlemen…

0

In an unexpected turn of events sure to displease my fellow Ballers, copanut reclaims the Steel Balls trophy following a three year hiatus.

I must admit to being surprised, considering I had the worst prediction regarding our beloved Steelers. In fact, my guess was so bad, I did not bother even looking at my predictions once the Steelers’ wobbly wheels came off the Matt Canada bus by mid-season. But after all these years, haven’t we learned from the Steelers that we should never give up until the fat punter kicks?

I had naively guessed 13 wins, meaning every single one of you was closer to the mark than I was, including both EstimatedProphet and tennbob who correctly guessed the final result of 10 wins. Unfortunately for me, it doesn’t count that the Steelers would have ended with 13 wins had Mitch Trubisky not gifted wins to three awful teams in a row. But fortunately for me, our contest is not about Steelers wins alone!

With the entire division taken into consideration, as is the rule of this contest, copanut and tennbob tied with a total score of 9. As you know, the score is the net difference between the guessed results and the actual results, so lowest score wins. Four of you came in at 10, making it a close contest all around.

Being tied at 9, the contest fell through to tie breakers.

The first tie breaker is playoff wins. We do not yet know the answer for playoff wins, but it doesn’t matter since both copanut and tennbob guessed 1 win.

The second tie breaker is the total number of touchdowns scored by Diontae Johnson, who entered the season with a two year non-scoring streak. He finished the season with 5 TDs. Copanut guessed 6 and tennbob guessed 4, so we were both off by 1, and therefore remained at a tie.

The third tie breaker is the total number of sacks by Nick Herbig, and here the tie was finally broken. Herbig notched 3 sacks. Copanut guessed 3 while tennbob guessed 5, so copanut finishes with a total score of 11, beating tennbob’s 13.

Now, it is my general habit to screw up these tallies in one or two places, so I encourage you to double check my work. If so, you may be able to pry the trophy out of my hands. The overall contest was so close that pretty much anyone could be the winner if I made a mistake.

Summary of predictions:

Scoring:

0

Make your 2023 season predictions below. Same rules as previous seasons. Entries must be submitted by midnight before the season opening game.

Please include (1) W/L predictions for each Steelers game, (2) season records for each team in the division, and (3) tie breakers. If you fail to submit the tie breakers, you lose the tie.

Here is your prediction template. Good luck.

01 – SF
02 – CLE (Mon)
03 – @LV
04 – @HOU
05 – BAL
06 – BYE
07 – @LAR (SNF)
08 – JAX
09 – TEN (Thu)
10 – GB
11 – @CLE
12 – @CIN
13 – ARI
14 – NE (Thu)
15 – @IND
16 – CIN (Sat)
17 – @SEA
18 – @BAL

Standings (wins):
Steelers
Bengals
Browns
Ravens

Tie Breakers:

• # Steelers playoff wins
• # TD catches by Dionte Johnson
• # Sacks by Nick Herbig

0

Now that the draft is behind us, it’s time to take a look at who had the most accurate prediction.

Total Points:

1. tennbob – 4
2. Earl – 4
3. copanut (mock 1) – 3
4. copanut (mock 2) – 3
5. Mwalsh26 (mock 2) – 3*
6. EstimatedProphet – 3
7. Eleven – 3
8. Mwalsh26 (mock 1) – 1
9. TomPaulBillyBob – 1
10. All the losers who were too lazy or scared to participate – 0

Yes, tennbob and Earl got it right, proving the old adage about broken clocks. Well done, guys, you made us proud! Technically, tennbob takes the crown because his predictions were submitted first. After those two, there was an amazing five-way tie for third place, with the tie-breaker being the chronology of the entries.

Earl had the distinction of being the only Baller to correctly pick a player and round combination, with Broderick Jones in round 1, garnering 3 points. He added another point by guessing a CB for the next pick. Tennbob predicted the positions of the first two picks, and also had a named player (Herbig) but with the wrong round, accumulating 4 points total. EstimatedProphet and Mwalsh26 (mock 2) also predicted Broderick Jones in round 1, but had no other hits. Only two other Ballers correctly picked a player, but did not have the correct round. Both copanut (mock 1) and Eleven correctly named Joey Porter Jr, but in the wrong round. Both mocks also correctly identified a DL as the third pick, but got the actual player wrong.

Copanut (mock 2) and tennbob had the distinction of being the only mocks to correctly guess more than two positions, though none for the correct player. Each predicted OT, CB, and DL for the first three picks, in that order, for one point each.

I will be kicking myself for the next 11 months because I originally had Broderick Jones for that first pick, which would have given me a total of 5 and the win, but lacking the imagination of Omar Khan, I decided Jones would be gone by 17 (which was true of course), and so I changed the name. Next time I’ll try to remember to have more faith in the Khan Artist to find a way around the impossible.

Mwalsh26 (mock 2) gets an asterisk because for some inexplicable reason he declared that this mock did not count. Well, we’re counting it anyway just to demonstrate how fair and reasonable we are here at Steel Balls. We won’t even mention that the mock he embraced came in tied for last, because that would be rude.

DISCLAIMER: I always manage to make at least one error in tabulation, so look over your mocks and compare to my evaluation to make sure I got it right. If you find a mistake in my tabulation, let me know. Eagle Eye JAMESH has already caught one major error, now fixed, and there may be more.

0

Here we go again. Time to start contemplating the draft instead of our navels.

You have up until the day before the draft to produce your predictions: have your predictions in no later than end of day April 26th. If you submit a mock earlier than that, you may edit the mock up until the deadline (e.g., in the event of a signing or trade that wrecks your initial mock). 

Please use the following format as a template. Any deviation from this format that causes me to have to interpret your gibberish will result in unfavorable scoring, so beware.

Identify any trades if applicable
Round (Pick) – Position, Name, School
1 (17)  – WR, Moe Howard, Harvard
2 (32)  – ILB, Larry Fine, Yale
2 (49)  – OG, Curly Howard, Stanford
3 (80) – RB, Shemp Howard, Princeton
4 (120) – NT, Joe DeRita, Brown
7 (234) – SS, Joe Besser, Penn
7 (241) – PK, Emil Sitka, Allegheny County Community College
Add up to five UFAs

This year, you may submit up to two mocks: one without any trades, and one with trades.

As in the past, you will be given two points for each correct name, and one point for each correct position/round combination. For UDFA selections, you will get a point only for a specific name. I may give or take other points for special predictions or egregious failures, at my sole dictatorial discretion.

Trades: Given the difficulty and risks of predicting a trade, I will grant bonus points for a successful prediction. If you predict a trade, you will be granted bonus points as follows:

• +1 if you correctly predict the trade partner
• +1 if you correctly predict the Steelers pick position(s) being traded
• +5 if you correctly predict the partner, the Steelers pick position(s) and the partner’s pick position(s)

I will get things kicked off with my own mocks. Good luck, ladies and gentlemen…

+2

The 2022 Baller Prognosticator of the Year goes to: Eleven! It was a very tight competition, as you will see below.

The first table shows our predictions vs the actual results.

The second table shows the net scores for each prediction.

As you can see, there was a two-way tie for first place between Eleven and tennbob with a score of 2. Tuskegee_Brown and EstimatedProphet were close behind with scores of 2.5 and 3. Eleven nailed the Steelers and Bengals, while tennbob hit on the Steelers and Browns. Sadly for tennbob, this is like have a non-losing season but failing to win the playoffs, because tennbob failed to provide a bonus prediction for the QB who would start the season (Trubisky). Since the others provided the correct answer for that bonus question, their scores are reduced by one point, giving the final results:

• Eleven: 1
• Tuskegee_Brown: 1.5
• tennbob: 2
• EstimatedProphet: 2

Your moderator was humiliated by coming in last place.

Congratulations to Eleven, and better luck to all of us including the Steelers, for 2023.

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