Steel Balls

Let me be the first out the door with a quickie mock draft. As always, I expect to be 100% wrong (although last year I got one pick right and at least one other where I was way more right than the Steelers). I post this anticipating humiliation and without the benefit of a lot of inside info, without any idea of what might happen in free agency, or, let’s be honest, without much in the way of football knowledge.

It’s easy to say the Steelers need to pick a cornerback high in the draft, but I and most fans have been saying that for three years. It’s even more true now, what with Cortez Allen’s failure to launch and the ineffective season offered by aging Ike Taylor. Yet, the Steelers are in big trouble at outside linebacker with Worilds not exactly posting Hall of Fame results and perhaps pricing himself beyond his proven value in free agency, and with Jarvis Jones yet to prove he can hold down the position and remain healthy. They also need to resign Arthur Moats who can provide solid depth and rotation. If the Steelers fail to sign Worilds, OLB will certainly be an even higher priority and will almost certainly result in some kind of free agent signing.

Although tight end is not an emergency need, the Steelers do need to begin developing a replacement for Heath Miller. The emergence of a legitimate backfield receiving threat in Le’Veon Bell along with the development of a great receiving corps has reduced the pressure to have a first round caliber receiving tight end. Still, they should look for a strong prospect with solid hands and good blocking potential in the mid rounds.

Mike Mitchell hopefully will improve at free safety, but even so there is a need for depth at the position and an eventual replacement. An additional option at running back would be welcome, to supplement Josh Harris and Dri Archer in the backup role. Some competition would be welcome at punter, although the Steelers rarely spend a draft pick on a kicking position. Offensive line depth is always welcome as well.

I am going with the following positional choices (w/ updates 3/22):

1. CB
2. OLB
3. CB
4. TE
5. OT
6. RB
   • 6c – OLB
7. P

The Steelers should also get a late round compensatory pick, but for the purposes of Mock Beta I will ignore that.

Here are my specific player choices (w/ updates 3/22):

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I remember thinking in 2010, “They took another wide receiver?” Why? They already have Hines, Mike Wallace and just signed Cotchery, who is pretty good. On top of that they took Sanders in the 3rd.”

What a mistake it would have been not taking this kid. And what if he had stayed in school for one more year and not come out until 2011? Would he be a Steeler today? I have to believe he would have gone higher and likely not been taken by Pittsburgh.

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As we get ready for the launching of the 2014 draft class next weekend, a class that has promise of being a good one, let’s take a look at draft history for context. It’s pretty much universally agreed that the best draft class in Steelers history, and indeed in all NFL history, is 1974. That draft class delivered an astonishing four Hall of Famers in the first five picks, a feat unlikely to be matched in our lifetimes. But what were the other top classes? And what about the worst? The sortable table below helps to reveal the answers. (Before you object, this kind of analysis is of course very limited. For one thing, the numbers follow the players rather than the team. The data reveals something about the value of Steelers draft selections regardless of whether the players played for Pittsburgh or for other teams.)

In this chart, we are looking at all draft classes from 1969 to 2008. The “modern era” can be considered to have begun for the Steelers with the drafting of Joe Greene in 1969, so that sets the start of the evaluation. Because recent draft classes are still writing their stories, we can’t look at them. Classes that are less than about five or six years are still largely active in the NFL so their full numbers will not be known for awhile. On the other hand, we know that the story of the 2008 class is now complete because none of the draftees remain active in the NFL. Not only does this hint at some of the answers to come, but it also provides a good ending point for the evaluation. It is true that there are a smattering of active players from previous years, but not too many. Seasons prior to 2000 are officially “in the books” as there are no longer active players, but years from 2000-2007 are still incomplete, and in the cases of 2004 and 2007, significantly incomplete. But, we have to start and stop somewhere.

The chart shows the following results for each year: HOF players, total games played by draftees, total all-pro player-years, total pro-bowl player-years, total player-years as primary starters, and total game starts. If we look by HOF players, there is no doubt that 1974 wins easily so we need look no further. Total games played (G) is not necessarily an indicator of the greatness of individual players, but it does tell us something about the overall net impact of the class on the team and therefore is a good indicator of the quality of the draft. By this measure, ’87, ’71, and ’93 were the best, with over 1000 total games played each. On the other end of the scale, the very worst draft class is 2008 which produced only 201 games played. At 285, the 2006 class was not much better.

The results for all pro (AP) and pro bowl (PB) are consistent with each other. The best are ’74 and ’87 by a significant margin. Similarly, years as primary starters (PS) and total game starts (GS) are consistent. 1987 produced the most primary starters and game starts, followed by ’71 and ’74. On the flip side, 1983 and 2008 tied for the most anemic starters by a wide margin, with only 5 player-years as primary starters from each of those classes. The 1983 years would have been somewhat better had the Steelers selected Dan Marino, but instead the most significant player from that class was a punter. Total game starts reveals an additional bad year, 1978. That class produced only 75 total game starts, consistent with the beginning of the end of the Dynasty. To be fair, it must have been hard to break into the extant starting lineup. 2008 provided only 81 game starts, while 1985 produced 87 and 1983 produced 89, delivering the doldrums of the Steelers Lost Decade. It’s easy to see how one or two bad drafts can result in several years of mediocrity. Given the 2008 class, there is little room for error in 2014.

Click below to see and sort the table.

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You may have noticed that I love looking back at old newspapers and swimming in the contemporary zeitgeist. One of the joys of this activity is 20-20 hindsight on Steelers history.

I searched for the January 29, 1969 issue of the Pittsburgh Press because this was the day after Chuck Noll was selected by Dan Rooney to be the head coach of the Steelers, and we all know how that turned out. But interestingly, this newspaper issue also turned out to be the one immediately following the NFL draft. Hard to believe, but in those days the draft was held in January just after the Super Bowl. At the current pace, in a few years the draft may be held a week before the start of the season… but I digress.

The paper reported on fan reaction to the drafting of Joe Greene in the first round. I found some of the comments to be oddly familiar.

One guy was incensed that the Steelers bypassed a chance to select Terry Hanratty and instead opted for a no-name defensive lineman. A bus driver commented, “I never heard of him… They had a chance at Hanratty? They didn’t take  him?” The Steelers did take Hanratty in the second round, and we know how that worked out too. Nothing against Terry, but choosing him in the first round would have been popular with the fans but a disaster for the Steelers, particularly after another Terry was chosen with the first pick a year later.

Another commented, “Actually, the way the Steelers are going, I’m not surprised at the pick. I would have liked to see them line up a secondary.”  No word on if this guy’s name is MWalsh. 🙂

A salesman, perhaps named Malsor, added, “Am I surprised? You better believe it. The sports fans here are so sick at heart that I can’t see this move. Oh well, they didn’t get Paterno either.”

An unnamed stockbroker turned out to be perhaps the wisest of this bunch. “Joe Greene must have been rated pretty good. The scouts from the Steelers haven’t been too good, but I got to go with him. They know more than I do.”

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What do you think of the Steelers’ picks today? Is there anyone you wish they had picked up? Anyone you wish they had not drafted? Anyone who you knew they wouldn’t, that you believe will be a good pro?

Put it down in the comments. This will make for an interesting look back conversation in a year.

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Trade Tracker: http://espn.go.com/nfl/draft2014/story/_/id/10900002/trade-tracker

I took most of the grades from Scouts, Inc just for the sake of speed.

Bear in mind that this does not take into account anyone who’s pro day they attended and visited with there or any extended discussions they had with someone at the combine.  It may offer hints, but isn’t the only way to project what they are going to do.

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Okay gang, here’s your chance for future bragging rights. You get to pick in real-time to prove you really belong in the Steelers War Room.

Here are the rules.

1.You can’t make your pick until the Steelers are on the clock.

2.You can’t make your pick after the official pick is announced.

3. IMPORTANT!  To enter your pick, select Other and type in your pick followed by your username, e.g. “Limas Sweed, bgigli”. DO NOT pick an entry already created by another user. Each draft pick / user combination needs to be unique.

[yop_poll id=”42″]

JMS55 is the winner!!! She can’t spell, but she sure knows her Steelers. Well done.

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• 1) Houston Texans select: Jadeveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina
• 2) St. Louis Rams select: Sammy Watkins, WR, Clemson
• 3) Jacksonville Jaguars select: Blake Bortles, QB, UCF
• 4) Cleveland Browns select: Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M
• 5) Oakland Raiders select: Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville
• 6) Atlanta Falcons select: Kahlil Mack, OLB, Buffalo
• 7) Tampa Bay Buccaneers select: Mike Evans, WR, Texas A&M
• 8) Minnesota Vikings select: Derek Carr, QB, Fresno St.
• 9) Buffalo Bills select: Greg Robinson, OT, Auburn
• 10) Detroit Lions select: Justin Gilbert, CB, Oklahoma State
• 11) Tennessee Titans select: Anthony Barr, OLB, UCLA
• 12) New York Giants select: Aaron Donald, DT, Pittsburgh
• 13) St. Louis Rams select: Jake Matthews, OT, Texas A&M
• 14) Chicago Bears select: Timmy Jernigan, DT, Florida State
• 15) Pittsburgh Steelers select: Darqueze Dennard, CB, Michigan State
• 16) Dallas Cowboys select: Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, S, Alabama
• 17) Baltimore Ravens select: Taylor Lewan, OT, Michigan
• 18) New York Jets select: Eric Ebron, TE, North Carolina
• 19) Miami Dolphins select: Odell Beckham Jr., WR, LSU
• 20) Arizona Cardinals select: Kony Ealy, DE, Missouri
• 21) Green Bay Packers select: Calvin Pryor, S, Louisville
• 22) Philadelphia Eagles select: Brandin Cooks, WR, Oregon State
• 23) Kansas City Chiefs select: Marqise Lee, WR, USC
• 24) Cincinnati Bengals select: Ryan Shazier, OLB, Ohio State
• 25) San Diego Charger select: Kyle Fuller, CB, Virginia Tech
• 26) Cleveland Browns select: C.J. Mosley, ILB, Alabama
• 27) New Orleans Saints select: Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Florida State
• 28) Carolina Panthers select: Zack Martin, OT, Notre Dame
• 29) New England Patriots select: Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE, Washington
• 30) San Francisco 49’ers select: Bradley Roby, CB, Ohio State
• 31) Denver Broncos select: Jason Verrett, CB, TCU
• 32) Seattle Seahawks select: Stephon Tuitt, DT, Notre Dame

Click below to see previous rounds.

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As I’ve said before, I’m pretty much always wrong about the draft from top to bottom. Then again the experts are usually wrong too, so what the hell.

This isn’t so much a mock draft as a list of the kinds of picks I’d like to see in the first four rounds. Bear in mind that I haven’t watched tape and am going only by various descriptions I’ve seen on these prospects. Also, I’m not taking character issues into consideration because I haven’t seen a lot of insight in that regard.

• Round 1:  Darqueze Dennard (CB Michigan State)  or Eric Ebron (TE North Carolina)
• Round 2: Austin Seferian-Jenkins (TE Washington) or Marcus Roberson (CB Florida)
• Round 3-c: Daniel McCullers (NT Tennessee)
• Round 4: Terrence Brooks (FS Florida State)
• Round 4-c: Brandon Coleman (WR Rutgers)
• Round 4-c: Terrance West (RB Towson)

In subsequent rounds, I’d stock up on best available DL, LB, CB, and S prospects. I’d be tempted to spend one of those late round picks on a top punter.

I know the nose tackle is further down than some would like, but I think there has to be a realization that the team will have to live with its current NT situation for a year or two until someone big can be developed. McCullers is a mammoth human specimen that could be that guy in 2015. Here is his analysis from CBS Sports:

STRENGTHS: Despite his inexperience, McCullers’ size and ability to disrupt things from the middle often made him the focus of an opponent’s blocking scheme. Has been double-teamed on most snaps and has even seen triple-team blocks often. Despite the attention, McCullers’ size and strength make him tough to move in the running game. He plays with better leverage than one might expect given his frame, holding up well inside and sliding off blockers to handle two-gap responsibilities when playing the 3-4 nose guard. He was equally impressive against the run when Tennessee switched to a four-man front in 2012.

WEAKNESSES: While McCullers’ is tough against the run, he offers little in terms of a pass rush. He certainly has the strength to simply push opponents into the pocket but possesses below average foot-quickness and lateral agility.

I would also try to supplement this with a decent FS and/ or CB from free agency, if available.

There you have it. Blast away.

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BIGINTN asked, “COPA Can you create a space for us to list our “special” players in the draft and who we would pick if they are available at #15? It sure looks like there could be an impact player available that also fills an immediate need”.

Ask and you shall receive.

You can comment on this thread to highlight your faves. Sometime closer to the draft we can gather up final predictions.

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