This year brings back memories of Chuck Noll and this quote:
You have to cut 22 players. Bell & Bryant will be suspended, so you’re down to 20. One of the punters is gone. Pick one and you’re down to 19. Pouncey has to be on the roster for one day, so he counts. CFT still sucks almost as much as NASCAR, but he’ll probably make the team.
Hopefully someone better than Grad + Landry will become available from a training camp cut by the August 25 or September 4 cut down dates. Here is the current depth chart across the NFL.
Sep 7, 2014; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Antonio Brown (84) runs over Cleveland Browns punter Spencer Lanning (5) during the first half at Heinz Field. Brown was flagged on the play. Mandatory Credit: Jason Bridge-USA TODAY Sports
Antonio Brown wants a new deal because he’s outperformed the one he currently has 3 years left on. The Steelers, on the other hand, have no incentive to give a new deal to a player they took a chance on three years ago by rewarding him with a huge extension they had no urgency to give him at that time.
There are arguments for and against extending him.
Against because it sets a bad precedent for extending guys early by encouraging others to attempt renegotiation if they feel they have outperformed their deal. There is also a growing sense that the proliferation of pro ready WRs that have hit the league the past couple of drafts is a trend that will continue, thus making WRs a fungible commodity and diminishing the value of the position as a whole.
I was in the “no way you give AB a new deal until March 2017” camp until recently. Although I don’t feel strongly, I do think it may be a good business move to go ahead and do it now or by next Spring at the latest, taking advantage of the ability to both dictate terms and spread the signing bonus over the remainder of the existing deal. Here’s why:
First and foremost, AB is a special football player. He is that rare blend of great athleticism and drive that will not only maximize his own abilities but push the qualities of the players around him. Guys like AB are valuable because they lead by example. Yes, he has a little diva in him, but he’s a WR. Every one of those guys does! I think the Steelers recognized these qualities in AB when they gave him the contract he signed in 2012. I don’t believe they saw much risk in it at all and, Limas Sweed notwithstanding, as with most of the WR decisions the past several years they were correct.
Second, a quick look at the free agent WRs coming available in 2016 and 2017 netted me a list of players who will all receive as much or more than AB currently averages on a deal that currently pays him as the 13th highest paid WR (Avg Yearly Salary): AJ Green, Julio Jones, Malcolm Floyd, Andre Caldwell, Brian Quick, Pierre Garcon, Emmanuel Sanders, Cordarrelle Patterson, Justin Hunter, Terrance Williams, Keenan Allen.
I’m sure there are guys I’ve overlooked as I invested about 30 seconds and came up with a whole slew of names.
Waiting to redo AB’s deal is just going to make signing him more expensive later.
Third, the Steelers are in a fantastic negotiating position right now. As has been pointed out they have him under contract through 2017 and can franchise him afterward if they are so inclined. Sitting down with Drew Rosenhaus between now and the beginning of the 2016 season and hammering out a deal doesn’t give AB and his reps much leverage. AB can hold out, but he has to show up by the Tuesday after the week 10 game to get credit for a year of service. Doing so in 2016 and 2017 not only does nothing to build his brand but also does not satiate his need to perform on the big stage and show his “greatness”, two factors that I genuinely believe drive AB.
The Steelers can, in effect, make a take it or leave it offer that is far less expensive than the one they’ll have to make to extend him in March 2017. AB also will not be able to say that the team was unwilling to negotiate with him, which hopefully will soften any stance he or his representatives want to take with regard to a hold out.
Last, my friend Copa makes an argument that I find compelling even If I don’t feel as strongly as he does about it.
“…what message will be sent? That if you are a HOF caliber player with a HOF work ethic, HOF attitude, leadership, team focus, and consistent league leading results, and if unusual circumstances warrant it, the team will have your back. Heck, that’s the kind of “problem” you should want to foster and encourage. This is not the same as capitulating to a diva holdout player. Good receivers are fungible. Great team players and leaders are not.”
I would offer AB a 2 year extension worth $32M TODAY. I would give him $8 million to sign and give the Steelers two additional years at what are likely to be below market rates in 2018 and 2019 and also giving the team the option of cutting him if necessary as soon as 2017. It would be a take it or leave it proposition that allowed AB to say he got a new deal worth $16 million per year. The reality would be that the Steelers got two more years out of AB at below market rates and that they would probably have to do this dance again in 2018. However, at the point the market landscape could have changed a great deal for previously mentioned and unforseen reasons.
The offer would look like this:
| Current Deal: | ||||||
| Bonuses | Cap | |||||
| Year | Base Salary | Prorated | Roster | Workout | Other | Number |
| 2015 | $6,000,000 | $3,787,500 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $9,787,500 |
| 2016 | $8,250,000 | $3,787,500 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $12,037,500 |
| 2017 | $8,710,000 | $2,087,500 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $10,797,500 |
| New Deal with Extension (2 yrs $32M, $8M signing): | ||||||
| Bonuses | Cap | |||||
| Year | Base Salary | Prorated | Roster | Workout | Other | Number |
| 2015 | $6,000,000 | $5,387,500 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $9,787,500 |
| 2016 | $8,250,000 | $5,387,500 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $12,037,500 |
| 2017 | $8,710,000 | $3,687,500 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $10,797,500 |
| 2018 | $10,500,000 | $1,600,000 | $0 | $1,000,000 | $0 | $13,100,000 |
| 2019 | $11,500,000 | $1,600,000 | $0 | $1,000,000 | $0 | $14,100,000 |
I’m not saying AB would take it, but you know the saying about a bird in the hand……
Please tell me what you think in the comments below. Please attempt to do so without calling me or anyone else anything insulting. Well, at least not anyone else.
Well guys, here it is. Please feel entitled to read it and offer any feedback you like whether positive, negative or indifferent. You all were a part of my evolution as a fan and now part time, half assed amateur writer.
I’ll do an updated post when the official terms are available. This gives everyone a sense for where they’re starting. His cap number spikes dramatically next year when there is no huge dead money hit from Woodley or Colon and they expect another substantial increase in the cap.
Basically it’s a 4 year extension at $21.85 Million per year.
Watch a nice take on the play: http://www.wpxi.com/news/news/local/pittsburgh-steelers-immaculate-reception-franco/njY5L/
Sure looks to me like it hit Tatum: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GMuUBZ_DAeM
Our grouchy football uncle Ed Bouchette posted this in his slog this morning.
Worilds told me after six games that he was not rushing the passer as often as he did last season, so I went to Pro Football Focus to see how they had it. They do a good job of charting the number of plays, and they break down when a defender rushes the passer or covers a receiver on passing downs. After six games, according to their count, Worilds rushed the quarterback 57.1 percent of the time. Last season, he rushed 79 percent of the time.
After six games, Worilds told me this about having to cover receivers more often in 2014 than he did in 2013, “I would hope that they know that I rush the passer, so if they put me out of position, they do it knowing that they’re taking me out of position to make plays.”
Since then, Worilds has rushed the quarterback more often and his percentage is up to 69.8 rushing and 30.2 covering for the season. That still pales to last season’s 79 percent rushing (an 11.6 percent drop), but it’s a lot more than the 57.1 he had after six games. The numbers after 14 games for Worilds, according to PFF: 372 pass rushes, 161 pass coverages.
So, armed with what I can assume is fairly accurate info on snap counts and pass rush opportunities, I decided to see how productive Worilds has been since the change in week seven.
While only using averages based upon games played and total opportunities to rush (total pass plays); Worilds was rushing the passer approximately 21.7 times per game in the first six weeks. Since then he has rushed the passer approximately 30.2 times per game and dropping approximately 7.8 times per game (or rushing the passer approximately 79% just like last year), bringing his average up to almost 70% on the season. How has his productivity changed since week six, I wondered.
Well, as the chart below illustrates, he’s not even doing as well getting to the QB as he was doing in weeks one through six. And, with an average of 9 more opportunities to get to the QB per game, he’s out of excuses.
Assuming the pass rush stats are correct and there has been a marked uptick in Worilds pass rush opportunities, he is no better after getting more opportunities than he was when he was rushing the passer less frequently.
In the first six weeks, Worilds had 2 sacks and 7 QB hits combined. That averages to 0.333 sacks per game and 1.1667 QB hits per game.
In the ensuing eight games, when he has dropped back less frequently and rushed a lot more often, he has a combined 2.5 sacks and 5 QB hits. That averages to 0.31 sacks per game and 0.625 QB hits per game.
In other words, since becoming the Steelers primary pass rush threat in week seven, Worilds is actually less productive. Oh, and he makes $10M this season.
Again, for the guys holding onto the belief that the Steelers have held Worilds back. Worilds has been given a lot more opportunities since week six and his effectiveness has actually dropped. He has had one “franchise” type game this year in 14 weeks. It was the Saints game where he recorded 5 solo tackles, 5 assists, 1 sack, 2 tackles for loss, no passes defensed and a QB hit.
| week | tackles | assists | sacks | TFL | PD | QB hits | INT |
| 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 wk subtl | 12 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 0 |
| per gm avg | 2 | 0.833 | 0.33 | 0.7 | 0 | 1.1667 | 0 |
| week | tackles | assists | sacks | TFL | PD | QB hits | INT |
| 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | 3 | 2 | 1.5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 14 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 8 wk subtl | 20 | 14 | 2.5 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
| per gm avg | 2.5 | 1.75 | 0.31 | 0.4 | 0.25 | 0.625 | 0.125 |
| tackles | assists | sacks | TFL | PD | QB hits | INT |
