Steel Balls

Now that the draft is behind us, it’s time to take a look at who had the most accurate prediction.

Total Points:

1. tennbob – 4
2. Earl – 4
3. copanut (mock 1) – 3
4. copanut (mock 2) – 3
5. Mwalsh26 (mock 2) – 3*
6. EstimatedProphet – 3
7. Eleven – 3
8. Mwalsh26 (mock 1) – 1
9. TomPaulBillyBob – 1
10. All the losers who were too lazy or scared to participate – 0

Yes, tennbob and Earl got it right, proving the old adage about broken clocks. Well done, guys, you made us proud! Technically, tennbob takes the crown because his predictions were submitted first. After those two, there was an amazing five-way tie for third place, with the tie-breaker being the chronology of the entries.

Earl had the distinction of being the only Baller to correctly pick a player and round combination, with Broderick Jones in round 1, garnering 3 points. He added another point by guessing a CB for the next pick. Tennbob predicted the positions of the first two picks, and also had a named player (Herbig) but with the wrong round, accumulating 4 points total. EstimatedProphet and Mwalsh26 (mock 2) also predicted Broderick Jones in round 1, but had no other hits. Only two other Ballers correctly picked a player, but did not have the correct round. Both copanut (mock 1) and Eleven correctly named Joey Porter Jr, but in the wrong round. Both mocks also correctly identified a DL as the third pick, but got the actual player wrong.

Copanut (mock 2) and tennbob had the distinction of being the only mocks to correctly guess more than two positions, though none for the correct player. Each predicted OT, CB, and DL for the first three picks, in that order, for one point each.

I will be kicking myself for the next 11 months because I originally had Broderick Jones for that first pick, which would have given me a total of 5 and the win, but lacking the imagination of Omar Khan, I decided Jones would be gone by 17 (which was true of course), and so I changed the name. Next time I’ll try to remember to have more faith in the Khan Artist to find a way around the impossible.

Mwalsh26 (mock 2) gets an asterisk because for some inexplicable reason he declared that this mock did not count. Well, we’re counting it anyway just to demonstrate how fair and reasonable we are here at Steel Balls. We won’t even mention that the mock he embraced came in tied for last, because that would be rude.

DISCLAIMER: I always manage to make at least one error in tabulation, so look over your mocks and compare to my evaluation to make sure I got it right. If you find a mistake in my tabulation, let me know. Eagle Eye JAMESH has already caught one major error, now fixed, and there may be more.

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Here we go again. Time to start contemplating the draft instead of our navels.

You have up until the day before the draft to produce your predictions: have your predictions in no later than end of day April 26th. If you submit a mock earlier than that, you may edit the mock up until the deadline (e.g., in the event of a signing or trade that wrecks your initial mock). 

Please use the following format as a template. Any deviation from this format that causes me to have to interpret your gibberish will result in unfavorable scoring, so beware.

Identify any trades if applicable
Round (Pick) – Position, Name, School
1 (17)  – WR, Moe Howard, Harvard
2 (32)  – ILB, Larry Fine, Yale
2 (49)  – OG, Curly Howard, Stanford
3 (80) – RB, Shemp Howard, Princeton
4 (120) – NT, Joe DeRita, Brown
7 (234) – SS, Joe Besser, Penn
7 (241) – PK, Emil Sitka, Allegheny County Community College
Add up to five UFAs

This year, you may submit up to two mocks: one without any trades, and one with trades.

As in the past, you will be given two points for each correct name, and one point for each correct position/round combination. For UDFA selections, you will get a point only for a specific name. I may give or take other points for special predictions or egregious failures, at my sole dictatorial discretion.

Trades: Given the difficulty and risks of predicting a trade, I will grant bonus points for a successful prediction. If you predict a trade, you will be granted bonus points as follows:

• +1 if you correctly predict the trade partner
• +1 if you correctly predict the Steelers pick position(s) being traded
• +5 if you correctly predict the partner, the Steelers pick position(s) and the partner’s pick position(s)

I will get things kicked off with my own mocks. Good luck, ladies and gentlemen…

+2

The 2022 Baller Prognosticator of the Year goes to: Eleven! It was a very tight competition, as you will see below.

The first table shows our predictions vs the actual results.

The second table shows the net scores for each prediction.

As you can see, there was a two-way tie for first place between Eleven and tennbob with a score of 2. Tuskegee_Brown and EstimatedProphet were close behind with scores of 2.5 and 3. Eleven nailed the Steelers and Bengals, while tennbob hit on the Steelers and Browns. Sadly for tennbob, this is like have a non-losing season but failing to win the playoffs, because tennbob failed to provide a bonus prediction for the QB who would start the season (Trubisky). Since the others provided the correct answer for that bonus question, their scores are reduced by one point, giving the final results:

• Eleven: 1
• Tuskegee_Brown: 1.5
• tennbob: 2
• EstimatedProphet: 2

Your moderator was humiliated by coming in last place.

Congratulations to Eleven, and better luck to all of us including the Steelers, for 2023.

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Ravens fans are feeling salty. Good thing we don’t behave this way when things don’t go as planned…

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Make your 2022 season predictions below. Same rules as previous seasons. Entries must be submitted by midnight before the season opening game.

Please include (1) W/L predictions for each Steelers game, (2) season records for each team in the division, and (3) number of playoff wins. Any other predictions will be taken into consideration as tie breakers. Bonus points if you correctly answer the two additional questions below.

Here is your prediction template. Good luck.

01 – @Bengals
02 – Patriots
03 – @Browns (Thu)
04 – Jets
05 – @Bills
06 – Buccaneers
07 – @Dolphins (SNF)
08 – @Eagles
09 – Bye
10 – Saints
11 – Bengals
12 – @Colts (Mon)
13 – @Falcons
14 – Ravens
15 – @Panthers
16 – Raiders (Sat)
17 – @Ravens
18 – Browns

Standings
Steelers –
Bengals –
Browns –
Ravens –

# Steelers playoff wins –

Opening Day Starting QB –
First Game Pickett Starts –

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It was a great draft experience, if not a great draft, but the drama has now come to a close. We can declare who finished, um, ahead, and state that our efforts were not, um, in vain.

First, let’s declare outright that none of us did particularly well compared to previous standout performances such as Walsh in 2021. Still, a win is a win. As Big Ben used to say, winning ugly is as good as winning pretty.

Read the rest of this entry »

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