Man, it’s difficult to deal with the the offsesason, particularly June – one of the deadest periods of our long national offseason nightmare.

So… here are some random thoughts that have nothing to do with football.

Thank you Donald Trump! I don’t care about your politics – if you don’t find The Donald hysterically funny there is something wrong with you. He makes all the other presidential candidates look normal and sane by comparison, and that is no small feat.  Revel in his nearly incoherent and yet magnificently  narcissistic announcement today:

“I will be… the greatest jobs president… that God ever created… I tell you that.” I’m thankful that he added “I tell you that” to the end of the sentence because that just makes it so more… real.

Donald will do for the combover what Lincoln did for the tophat.

First we had transgender, then transracial. Why not transfootball? As long as we can all pretend to be what we are not, why not give a break to the Cleveland Browns and let them pretend to be what they are not – a professional football team. Or let Bill Belicheck pretend to be what he is not – a fully animate entity.

Another terrorist dies… and another 1000 headlice go homeless.

Are you sick and tired of spam? The most amazing spam control software I’ve ever used is called Cloudmark DesktopOne and it’s free. The design is genius and results in extremely accurate spam detection thanks to crowd stats and honeypotting. Since I installed it, it has blocked 4,704 spams of 6,170 messages (76%) with zero false positives and almost no misses.

One of the best places on Earth. Can you identify it?

Oh, just one more more thing… I’ve been killing time lately by watching Columbo on Netflix. Though somewhat dated in style, that was one brilliant show. Love watching Peter Falk make the perps squirm until he pulls the rabbit out of the hat at the end. Also quality guest actors and production staff like Bochco. Good stuff.

Okay, just remember…

[fergcorp_cdt max=1]

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Here are some OTA photos to cleanse our collective football palates.

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Much has been written about ball deflation helping Tom Brady in his throws. Some has also been written about deflation helping the Patriots with their fumble statistics. What about fumbles specifically by Brady?

Brady allegedly has smallish hands that can make it more difficult to grip and hold onto a harder football. In fact, as reported at Steelers Depot, Brady testified that he lost sleep over this issue. While lobbying in 2006 for the NFL to allow teams to supply their own balls, Brady said “there’ve been nights before road games when I have had trouble sleeping because I’m thinking about what kind of footballs I’ll be throwing the next day”. Partly thanks to Brady’s lobbying, teams were allowed to supply balls from 2007 onward.

How did this rule change impact Brady’s ability to hold onto the ball? Other than Brady and perhaps “The Deflator”, nobody can say for sure that balls were systematically underinflated going back to 2007, but Brady’s fumble statistics are certainly eye popping.

From 2001 to 2006, Brady fumbled 59 times in 94 starts, or 0.63 times per start. From 2007 to 2014, he fumbled 37 times in 112 starts, or 0.33 times per start. In other words, his fumble rate was almost exactly cut in half coincident with the rule change. This is a huge statistical disparity that cannot be random chance.

As a point of comparison, Ben Roethlisberger has fumbled 78 times in 158 starts, or 0.49 times per start. In other words, despite playing behind a frequently porous offensive line, and despite his freewheeling style that famously includes holding the ball too long and taking big hits, Roethlisberger fumbled significantly less frequently than pre-rule-change Brady but significantly more frequently than post-rule-change Brady.

Turnover rate is usually considered the most important correlation with winning percentage. Historically, teams that win the turnover battle win about 75% – 80% of the time. Further, a team’s most prolific fumbler is almost always the quarterback. Brady is the biggest fumbler for the Patriots, even with his current lower fumble rate. It seems clear that if the quarterback’s fumble rate can be cut in half, the team’s chance of winning will increase accordingly, making this particular statistic the single most impactful component for team success. About this, there can be zero doubt.

The only open question is whether Brady’s amazing 50% reduction in fumble rate is purely coincidental, or due to his improvement as a player, or due to other factors such as…. (a) having a significantly better grip on an under-inflated ball, (b) having league rules making it difficult to touch him, (c) having league rules such as the Tuck Rule to make fumbles more difficult to call, and maybe (d) having surveillance-assisted advance knowledge of what the defense is planning to do. There does seem to be a pattern of evidence that the Patriots have been systematically working to alter or evade the rules specifically to reduce Brady’s turnover rate.

Is there anyone who thinks that if the Steelers could somehow cut Roethlisberger’s fumbles in half, this would not present a substantial advantage in the win column? Indeed the Steelers have tried to improve this aspect of the game by building a better offensive line, improving the OL coaching, and the Haley system that encourages Roethlisberger to not hold the ball as long. The difference is that the Steelers approach, as with most teams, is to work within game rules while the Patriots approach seems to rely heavily on either getting the rules changed, skirting the rules entirely, or in the case of Deflategate, both.

ADDENDUM

Oh, it gets even more interesting when we look at broader QB stats for Brady.

* #9 among active quarterbacks, #13 all-time
* #2 among active quarterbacks, #2 all-time

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Patriots Fans Should Be Suspended For The First Four Games For Acting Like A Bunch Of Sissies

BY PFTCOMMENTER • 05.13.15

Tom Brady agent Don Yee has a remarkable take on the Deflategate report and punishment. Yee claimed innocence, which is not suprising, but let’s deconstruct his logic quickly.

“There is no evidence that Tom directed footballs be set at pressures below the allowable limits.”

True and admirably word-smithed like a lawyer. There is evidence that footballs were deflated below limits. There is evidence that Tom directed deflation. There is evidence that he pressured or bribed to get it done. There is evidence that it was not an isolated event to the point that the Deflator had the nickname “the Deflator” and at least indicated fatigue at the job. There is evidence that this deflation was done intentionally after the balls had been officially checked which would only be done to avoid detection, which in turn would only be necessary if the deflation was below allowable limits. There is evidence that Tom knew who was responsible before any investigation took place (he texted the perpetrators to make sure they were not folding under pressure of the deflation being discovered). There is evidence he lied because he had claimed he didn’t even know the names of those people. There is evidence that Tom likes deflated balls and has the experience to know when they are deflated and how much they are deflated. Can it be that the greatest quarterback in the history of mankind is unable to tell when a ball is deflated below standards? I’m willing to bet that the average high school player could get it right in a blind test a majority of the time.

But yes, there is no evidence that Tom directed footballs be set at pressures below the allowable limits.

“In fact, the evidence shows Tom clearly emphasized that footballs be set at pressures within the rules.”

I must have missed that bit of evidence. So…. huh?

“Tom also cooperated with the investigation and answered every question presented to him.”

True, he cooperated by physically being there. True he answered every question, just deceptively or incompletely, and acted like a diva who was insulted to even be questioned.

Most damning, he refused to provide his phone and text records, evidence that could have theoretically exonerated him.

The reason given for his refusal is that he didn’t want to “set a dangerous precedent for all players facing disciplinary measures”.

Because, you see, Tom has always worried about other players first and because of his strong moral compass he is ready and willing to sacrifice himself, his team, and his fans for the greater good of all mankind.

The man just gives, and gives, and gives.

The man is a saint.

Well, not really. If he were a Saint, he’d be sitting for a year.

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The Steelers owe thanks to the Ravens. Click the link and I’ll explain why.

There was a fair amount of fan hand wringing and consternation following the dramatic events of 2015 Draft Day #2, when Ravens GM extraordinaire Ozzie Newsome pole vaulted over the Steelers to nab tight end Maxx Williams in the second round. Many fans had been counting on the Steelers selecting Williams and were inconsolable following the Ravens action, and even more freaked out upon learning the Steelers’ selection of cornerback Senquez Golson. Maybe the Steelers panicked, maybe the Ravens panicked, but it says here that it’s most likely the fans panicked. In any case, Steelers fans owe a debt of thanks to the Wizard of Oz.

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